I have been dialoging with some friends who work with Chairman Lamar Smith about SOPA. I would like to share with you some of my thoughts on SOPA and respond to some of their concerns.

If you don’t know what SOPA is this video is a pretty good introduction.

Click here to view the embedded video.

Claim: SOPA only targets foreign websites.

The “inter” part is what makes the internet work. Congress has no idea how DNS servers work or what the technological ramifications of their law would be. Also, what makes a website foreign? My company Castle Media Group has servers all over the world.

SOPA does a lot more than block access to foreign sites. It is part of a very troubling series of laws. The way to stop piracy needs a more nuanced approach. Yet again Congress is trying to do open heart surgery with a chain saw.

Claim: SOPA won’t harm the internet.

I challenge SOPA supporters to find a single founder of the internet who backs this bill. As far as I know, the wizards of the internet reject SOPA to a man. In fact I challenge SOPA supporters to find one person who supports this bill who can accurately articulate what a DNS server is and how the DNS system works. The “Phone book for the web” definition the press uses is unclear and misleading.

Claim: SOPA will reduce online piracy.

SOPA has no solvency. Messing with DNS servers will do nothing to block unique IPs from sending data back and forth. So the result will be an encrypted, underground black market as full of pirated goods as the status quo. If this bill is passed, there would be technological workarounds in place before the bill even took effect. But the harms would persists for decades. Trying to get content off the internet with laws is like trying to get pee out of a pool with a net.

The harms of SOPA are huge. Laws regarding technology inhibit inovation since the laws persist long after the technological landscape has changed. If this bill was harmless, why would so many websites be protesting it?

Claim: 43 “digital piracy” sites generate an estimated 53 billion hits annually.

Be careful anytime anyone uses the phrase “hits” to talk about how much web traffic. A hit is a single server request be it a file, style sheet, a database query, a script, or an image. It is not uncommon for a single page view to generate dozens of hits and for a single website visitor to generate hundreds if not thousands of hits. I would estimate that every minute you spend on Facebook, Facebook gets 250 “hits.” Hits correlate to traffic about as much as RPM correlates with MPH in your car.

A much more valid metric is “page views” or “unique visitors.”

Claim: Online piracy costs America 200 billion dollars and thousands of jobs.

The number about lost revenue is misleading. First it may be based on bad information in the first place. If the estimators are using “hits” as a way of estimating traffic to pirated sites then their conclusions are based on faulty premises. The number is likely made up and not based on any sort of empirical research.

Secondly, the estimators fail to take into account the elasticity of prices. When a commodity is cheaper, people tend to consume more of that thing. Some commodities are more elastic than others. Energy is very inelastic. Entertainment is very elastic. So when entertainment is free, people consume a lot of that entertainment. You probably listen to more Pandora or FM Radio than songs you’ve purchased on iTunes for instance.

The higher prices are the more discriminating people become. Some movies you will wait to rent because you don’t think they are worth the price of a movie ticket, for example.

So to assume that if we could snap our fingers and remove all piracy that people would start paying for all the pirated content the currently consume is false. The money the industry claims to loose are based on growth rates that are completely unrealistic. $200 billion dollars? Really? The entire music industry is only a 20-30 billion dollar industry and the movie industry is not much bigger. There is no way they could have grown that big that fast in a piracy free world. Where on earth do they expect those 100 billion dollars to come from? Would consumers suddenly have more money to spend or would they just consume less media?

The Solution: Fewer Laws & More Innovation

The solution to piracy is technological not legal. Laws lack the flexibility needed to be effective. The Congress chases technology like a two year old child chases a squirrel. Technology adapts too quickly for the laws to do anything but harm law abiding citizens. The most effective enemy to Napster was the Apple iTunes store. Suing Napster (Which did not require SOPA by the way) did nothing the curb piracy. But the iTunes store makes buying legal content so easy that saving $0.99 to pirate a song is not worth the effort. I can listen to a song playing in a coffee shop, use an app to identify that song and then buy it all within three minutes and all on my iPhone.

This sort of inovation is why the music industry just announced growth in sales for the first time since 2004. The movie industry will see similar growth as they embrace “movies as an experience” and make it easier to legally rent internet movies on your TV. If Hollywood put half as much effort into usability as they put into lobbying, we would see a dramatic increase in sales and a decline in piracy. They need to make renting an online movie through your TV easy enough for my grandmother to do it.

Responding to technology should be like our response to speech. The answer to wrong speech is more speech not censorship. The answer to the wrong use of technology is more technology not regulation.

Nerds created the internet, the nerds can manage it. Congressmen should not regulate what they do not understand.

No related posts.

This is part 3 in a series of posts about foreign policy.

• Wrong Assumption #1 Giving Foreign Aid Promotes US Regional Interests
• Wrong Assumption #2 Limited Number of Terrorists

Many conservatives have religions motivations behind their foreign policy. They look at the violence advocated in the Koran and realize that, when interpreted literally, Islam is a violent religion. They then propose as a solution that we kill the Islamic Extremists before they can kill us. This kind of thinking is amplified by those who think we should “just nuke the whole desert and be done with the danger.”

This thinking lowers us to their level. It is also based on wrong assumptions, since bullets don’t stop ideas or religions.

The only way to stop ideas is with other ideas.

History teaches us that when you persecute something you legitimize and promote it. The tighter we squeeze the middle east, the more countries will slip through our fingers. If it didn’t work for Darth Vader it won’t work for us.

We would have done much better to send an army of missionaries to share the hope of the Gospel than to send an army of troops to shoot at their ideas. We will content to struggle to have moral legitimacy to share the Gospel of Peace when we are shooting at our mission field.

Trying to stop a religion with bullets is like trying to put out a fire out with gasoline. I didn’t work for Caesar, it won’t work for us.

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I think President Bush believed that there are a fixed number of terrorists in this world. He stated as much in one of his speeches when he said it was better to fight them over there with soldiers than it is to fight them here with firemen and rescue workers. In that every terrorist that we kill makes for one less terrorist in the world.

While I admire Bush’s rhetoric, I question his reasoning. Imagine, for a moment the repercussions when we kill a terrorist in Afghanistan. His siblings have lost a brother, his parents have lost a child and his children have lost their father. Yes, Muslims have feelings too. Do you think any of those family members might be moved to revenge the death of their beloved father/brother/friend?

If you follow Middle Eastern history for any period of time you will see a region continually stuck in cycles of revenge and retribution that go back for centuries. Getting caught into this cycle of retaliation is not a good foreign policy.

In addition to the terrorist motivated by revenge, New terrorists are born every day. Some, children in some Muslim countries are encouraged from birth to become terrorists. They strap on bomb vests the same way America children wear Spiderman pajamas. Except, American kids don’t grow up to be Spiderman.

Sending troops into Afghanistan to kill terrorists is like sending exterminators into Minnesota to swat summer mosquitoes. They may kill many bugs but will have made no measurable change to the overall number of bugs.

Now imagine for a moment that instead of mosquitoes those bugs were bees and we were repeatedly stabbing their nests with a stick. How does that make us safer?

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My goal is not to convince you to vote for Ron Paul. I’m sure your mind is already made up. My goal is to inform your views about our Foreign Policy. I have studied history and foreign affairs intensely over the last few years and have become convinced that our current foreign policy is dangerous and evil. Name any country in the world and I can give you an update on what is going on in that region and perhaps even the country itself.

I would like to address these flawed assumptions over the coming days. The first flawed assumption is that giving money to tyrants makes the world safer for US.

Wrong Assumption #1 Giving Foreign Aid Promotes US Regional Interests

Foreign Aid means giving money, food and guns to the leaders of other nations. They then sometimes use this money to rape their people to feed their soldiers. The money is supposed to help the poor. But, the problem with tyrants is that they are evil, and evil men don’t feed the poor even when you pay them to.

We gave or continue to give aid to the following regimes:

• Mubarak Regime (Egypt)
• Hussein Regime (Iraq)
• Taliban Regime (Afghanistan)
• Putin Regime (Russia)
• Gillani Regime (Pakistan)
• Wolde-Giorgis Regime (Ethiopia)
• Chavez Regime (Venezuela)
• Castro Regime (Cuba)
• Palestinian Authority Regime (Gaza Strip)
• Gaddafi Regime (Libya)
• The list goes on and on.

The shorter list is the tyrants we don’t aid. To my knowledge is Kim Jong il and Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

What is so sad about this list is that we have ended up going to war with most of these tyrants anyway.

I am convinced that Foreign Aid is evil and one of the biggest reasons that the third world stays poor. If you read the Old Testament, you learn that the poor stay poor not because they lack money. They stay poor because they lack justice. When we give food, guns and cash to tyrants we promote the very injustice that hurts the poor. Also, when food does make it to the people it puts local farmers out of work since they can’t compete with free food. Oh, and foreign aid is bankrupting our economy. Socialism is bad, very very bad.

Borrowing money from China to then give aid to tyrants is like borrowing cash from a loan shark to hire a drug dealer to shoot the homeless.

Ron Paul is the only candidate who opposes to Foreign Aid based on principle. The other candidates like aid but don’t think we can afford it right now.  Congressman Paul’s plan to cut 100% of foreign aid will help US and will promote justice around the world. It will also help Israel since we give seven times more money to Israel’s enemies than we give to Israel. Israel doesn’t need our money, Israel just found a huge oil reserve that has them set for years. More on Israel to come.

What do you think? Is foreign aid ever justified? Tomorrow we will discuss whether the number of terrorists is fixed or variable.

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Predicting the future is not rocket surgery. I just involves watching cycles & trends. The problem is there is no way to account for anomalies which makes failure easy to excuse. Here are 12 things I see happening in 2012.

Previous Predictions:

• 2011 Predictions (Score 7.5 out of 11)
• 2010 Predictions (Score 7.5 out of 10)
• 2009 Predictions (Score 4 out of 9)

Political Predictions

1 Romney to win Republican Nomination after Brokered Convention

2 Popular Third Party (Tea Party?) Candidate to Run for US President

If Romney wins the primary he is going to draw a Tea Party opponent in addition to Obama. Look for the third party candidate to come in from the right not the left.

3 Obama to Win Reelection

American’s are going to remember why the love Obama and why they dislike republican corruption. I just can’t see them electing Romney.

4 Republicans Regain control of Congress

The GOP will regain control of congress although by a slimmer margin than they currently enjoy.

Sports Predictions

5 UT to win BCS Bowl Game

UT is going to transform from a defensive powerhouse to an offensive powerhouse. They are going to teach Davis how to catch the ball and teach Shipley how to get open.  The will also have a non freshman Quarterback who knows how to move the ball down the field.

6 Aggies to Get Spanked in SEC

I predict A&M will win no more than 3 SEC games all year. I will not be surprised if they loose every conference game they play.

Technology Predictions

7 Attacks + Outages + Regulation will create worst year for the Internet in the history of the internet.

The internet will be attacked on all sides in 2012. Congress will regulate it. Hackers will break it in specific areas for specific periods of time. A huge virus attack will break out making headlines and costing businesses billions.

If you want to save the internet of tomorrow fight SOPA today. Piracy is a problem but SOPA is not the answer.

8 2011 Will Be the Year of Facebook Advertising

I predict that expenditures on FB ads will double from 2011. Authors, politicians and small businesses will get in on the game like never before. The first movers are already making a killing. Umstattd Media does Facebook advertising if you would like to give them a try for your company.

9 Facebook IPO

Facebook will issue a public offering and I will probably buy in on it.

10 Debut of an Apple TV

Apple will finally announce a real TV that will be amazing and expensive. It will also be so easy to use my 80 year old grandmother will want one.

Economic Predictions

11 US Economy to End Up in 2012

The chaos in Europe and the typical election year Fed shenanigans will cause the stock market to end higher than it did in 2011. I see this helping facilitate Obama’s reelection. If I miss this one I will like miss the one about Obama getting reelected.

Also I predict that while the economy will only make modest gains the press will go crazy and make the improvements look much better than they really are. This will spur additional growth that will struggle to sustain itself after the election.

12 Netflix to finish the year above $100 per share

Right now Netflix is trading around $70 a share.  Despite their recent goofs the fundamentals of the company are strong. Plus, they are still way cheaper than cable. Subscribers who quit in protest will come back.  This year they will be investing in South America and Europe and by the end of 2012 investors will see that Netflix has a bright future ahead of it. This is all assuming they can survive all the take over attempts between now and then. I’ve put my money where my mouth is on this one. I’ve sold my Apple stock for Netflix stock

Publishing Predictions

I have 2012 publishing industry predictions that you can find at the Author Media Blog we also interviewed nearly a dozen industry experts and got their predictions as well.

Bonus Prediction

The world will not end. Jesus will not come back. 

The more I study history the more I feel like we live in a fairly boring time all things considered. Our fear does not match with reality.  The wars are not very big, the famines not that deadly, the epidemics not as widespread compared with how they have been in the past. Even our recession is nothing compared with recessions of the past. If we were closer to the end of the world I would expect the world to go out with more of a bang.

Also we need to give Israel its sovereignty. Are they really a sovereign nation when they have to get permission from Bush or Obama to defend themselves?  Ron Paul is the only candidate who wants to give 100% sovereignty to Israel and to stop giving money to her enemies.

Tom Umsatttd’s (My Dad) Predictions

For my more measurable 2012 predictions.

1.       Presidency.  The republican (GOP) presidential candidate will remain be dubious, until around June, maybe an un-suspension of “9-9-9?”  Here are the scenarios as I see them.

Presidential Electoral Votes by Party for 2012

Scenario                                                  Democrats           Republicans           Other

Any GOP candidate besides Romney      235                                300                              0

If Dr. Paul is the GOP candidate*            135                                 400*                           0

If Romney is the GOP candidate**           235**                             125                          175

*  If Dr. Paul wins the GOP candidacy, the GOP will reform more towards actually following the US Constitution.  There will also be an increase of impeachment of federal judges in 2013, maybe even a supreme court justice!

**  If Mitt Romney becomes the GOP candidate, President Obama will win re-election with 235 votes, and, the GOP will cease to be a viable political party by 2014, obliging massive GOP defections to the more conservative party during the next 3 years.  No matter what happens, I see a bright future for America, especially after 2014, with a more conservative political party of some type to more effectively rival the liberals and socialists.

2.       Democrats will continue a minority in the House, and barely lose control of the US Senate in 2012, no matter who becomes president.

3.       Football.  University of Texas (whose record was 8-5 in 2010, and 5-7 in 2009) will win at least 9 games in the 2012 football season.  Bonus prediction:  A&M will win less than 5 games against SEC teams, probably closer to 2.

4.       RG III  Robert Griffin, III, Baylor’s Heisman Trophy winning quarter back, will go pro L.

5.       Baylor will continue to dominate in sports with its 19 teams, being 1 of the top 2 most successful universities in athletics in the Big 12.  (I hope this is a measurable fact.)

6.       Gold will be near or below $1000 per ounce by the end of 2012.

7.       Energy.  Crude oil will be volatile, but will end up around $105 per barrel.  Gasoline will too, but with not so much volatility, ending the year around $3.20 per gallon.

8.       War.  Occasional short-lived riots, and changes of regimes will continue in the middle east.  But with the US leaving Iraq, there will be a general cooling of hostilities.

9.       Europe will be a worldwide disappointment.  The euro will be weak, another European country, maybe 2, will have massive financial troubles, as they continue their liberal, Keynesian agendas toward economic decline.

10.   Real Estate foreclosures.  Even though the Obama administration will make every attempt to make itself look good, foreclosures and distressed sales of residential real estate (as well as the recession) will continue.  He will actually have some success in the summer, mainly from his friends in finance holding back from foreclosures until after the elections.  This graph will look like a “V” with a larger right side.  The National Association of Realtor’s report will state that foreclosures and short sales (typically sold at deep discounts) will be high at the beginning of 2012 (perhaps peaking around 33%, lower in the summer and fall (perhaps in the low 20s), but then after reporting concludes, before the elections, they will rise to 30-40% of all sales.

11.   Crisis Predictions.  Fukushima will continue to be a mostly ignored, major problem.  There will be no earth quakes over 9, but over 300 earth quakes under 7 all over the Pacific rim.  There will be 3 category 4 hurricanes, and       1 cat 5, but the later will decrease to a 3 when it hits the continent.  We will have the usual flooding in the Mississippi/Missouri/Ohio valleys, fires in the west and southwest, and a rather & snowy cold winter in the NE and Midwest.  The summer will be another hot one for Texas with 30 days over 100 degrees, and less than average rainfall from March to October.

12.   Netflix closed the year at $69.29 per share, will be valued over $150 per share by the end of 2012.  Too convenient, too inexpensive compared to going to the movies.  The recent bad news is not significant to hold the price down.

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It is that time again. Time to l0ok back on 2011 and summarize what I’ve been up to all year in 1000 words or less. But first lets score my 2011 predictions.

Scoring the 2011 Predictions

Prediction 1: New iPad With Camera

Got it, bought it, love it.
1 point.

Prediction 2: Real Estate Market to Crash in Austin

The prices in Austin droped by more than 15% as I predicted. The prices in some neighborhoods have dropped by as much as 200%. I know an investor who just bought a 3/2 foreclosure for $30,000 in South Austin.
1 point
Prediction 3: Voter ID Bill Will Pass This Year

I still can’t believe we failed to pass the voter ID bill this year. I want to give my self a point for this just for my denial. (Editors note: I have been corrected on Facebook. The Voter ID did pass after all. It is just being challenged in the courts which was to be expected )
1 points

Prediction 4: iPhone will come out on Verizon.

Hell froze over and this actually happened. No more are iPhone users tied to just one bad carrier. Now we have three bad carriers to choose from
1 point

Prediction 5: Sarah Palin will announce a bid for presidency.

No Palin run No Points for me
0 points

Prediction 6: Global Famine

Global food prices soured to all time highs in February and then started to taper off by the end of year. I’m going to give myself half a point for this one.
0.5 Points

Prediction 7: UT Make it to a Bowl Game

Yes we did, and we won that bowl game too 21 to 10.
1 points

Prediction 8: US Inflation to Rise to 5% or above

Current government numbers, if you believe them, have inflation at 3.4%. This number comes from the consumer price index. If you measure the dollar against Gold then inflation is indeed above 5%. Should I get a point for this? I say no.
0 points.

Prediction 9: An Umstattd Book will be published.

The one prediction I could control and I failed to deliver the goods. My brother David decided to write a 4th book instead of finishing his first one. His books are amazing but right now you have to be an Umstattd or a girlfriend to read them.
0 points

Prediction 10: Unemployment to Remain High
Last year I predict the rate would only fall to 8.5% according to our current numbers for November the unemployment rate dropped to 8.6%.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been lowering the unemployment rate by saying people are giving up looking for work. So hopelessness not job creation is lowing this number.
1 Point.

Prediction 11: 5,000 Saved Through 40 Days for Life

40 days for life reports that 5045 lives have been saved.  And those are just the ones we know about. I am very happy to give myself a point for this prediction and to applaud all of you who have spent time praying out in front of abortion clinics. It really makes a difference.
1 Point

Total score 7.5 out of 11

My First Sermon

I gave my first legit Sunday Morning sermon in back in January of 2011. You and listen to it here. It was on what is normally called “low attendance Sunday” because of a leadership retreat that 30% of the church attended. But so many of you came out to hear me that filled Hope Chapel. Thank you.

My Political Activities

I have done a pretty good job staying out of politics this year despite being very frustrated with the incompetence in Washington amongst republicans. My only political action to speak of was to coach students at Patriot Academy and to donate money to Ron Paul which I recommend you do as well. Every dollar you give Ron Paul advances his ideas which is exactly what this country needs: The truth.

2011 Reading

I read 69 books in 2011.   Some of my favorites were:

1. Steve Jobs
2. Hunger Games
3. EntreLeadership by Dave Ramsey
4. Delivering Happiness
5. The Facebook Effect
6. Guns Germs and Steel
7. The Black Swan
8. The Science of Fear
9. The Eye of the World
10. Me Myself & Bob

You can see the full list on my Goodreads profile along with my reviews and ratings.

Castle Media Group LLC

In July I launched a new company named Castle Media Group LLC. It is a web marketing holding company that currently employes 10 people. Castle Media Group has the following subsidiaries.

Author Media

Author Media does web design and development for authors. It is also the new home for the Author Tech Tips blog. We help authors attract publishers, sell books and win more speaking gigs.

Umstattd Media

This is our web design for small businesses brand. I had plans to cancel Umstattd Media but the name ID, domain authority and referral base were just too high to turn away. At some point in the future we will launch a brand for small businesses that is easier to spell.

Webroots Media

Webroots Media designs websites for political organizations. Our goal is to do for other conservative candidates and organizations what we did for Rick Green. Webroots Media does more than just websites it is full service online marketing arm helping campaigns with Facebok Advertising, Search Engine Optimization, Email Marketing and more.

Blue Dove Designs

Blue Dove Designs is our first acquisition. We purchased this company from Jim Camomile in December or 2011.  Jim is now apart of our team and helping us launch some exciting new products for 2012.

Summary of 2011

That is a quick summary of some of what I’ve been up to. I’m sorry I have not updated this blog more frequently. Many of you have chastised me for not posting here and on Practical Courtship. All I can say is that running a business is a lot of work and this blog has had to take a back seat. On the plus side I have some exciting new year predictions coming out tomorrow. So stay tuned.

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Back in January, I gave my first Sunday sermon at Hope Chapel. Many of you came out to hear my “first real sermon” and I really appreciate your support. Even though that was the Sunday all the church leaders were out on a retreat, the sanctuary was full. Thank you.

The sermon was about the most mysterious woman in the old testament. We don’t even know her name but she wrote one of the most famous passages in the Bible. Curious? You will have to listen to the sermon to find out who she was. Or read Jim Davis’ notes below.

The first service I completely fell on my face technologically. I forgot my VGA adapter and even when someone in the congregation had one the projector completely failed to work. I have never in my life had a technical failure so catastrophic in front of so many people. The sound guy gracefully cut the first few frantic minutes of the sermon from the recording.

Listen/Watch

• Listen to the recording of the first service (right click and then click save as).
• Watch the video from the second service (right click and then click save as).

Here are the notes put together by Jim Davis. He created the notes for small group discussion.

Lesson

Satan intends to kill the current generation of God’s people and destroy the mission God has given them, but God heals and protects His children.

Text(s)/Resources

• Proverbs 31:1-9, Matthew 28:19-20, and Psalms 139
• AlmightyMusicVideo.com

Ice-Breaker:

1. Have you experienced an interest/hobby consuming large amounts of your time? Dominating your interests and thinking?
2. Have you felt an “adventure-shaped” hole in your heart, your thinking? Do you long for a more interesting/exciting life?

Background:

Proverbs 31 is famous for its description of a competent woman, but the first 9 verses are the words of a mysterious (unnamed) woman, the mother of King Lemuel. She speaks to her son, who is (or will be) a king. Notice that she has advice, feedback for him, but she speaks from the perspective of her listener. She speaks to his identify, before she speaks about what she thinks he should do. Rather than admonishing him to avoid a failure she anticipates, she speaks to his identify and encourages him to live up to the level of who he is.

Satan is the opposite. He would have his hearers forget who they are: children of God Almighty. Rather than encourage, Satan seeks to steal, kill and destroy.

Point 1 of 3: Steal. Thomas shared that as a child he loved computer games. They consumed his interests and time. Near the time he was finishing high school, an older brother (Lester Haines) spoke a word to him: “It is time for you to be about your Father’s business.” Thomas knew (though perhaps Lester did not) that his life was oriented in large degree around gaming, to near-addictive levels. The addition to activities can be very similar to drug and other addictions. So Thomas understood God to be telling him to  give up gaming.

Thomas further understood that he wanted adventure and that gaming attempted to fill the “adventure-shaped” hole in his heart. Soon after this word was given him, Thomas began to experience the adventure of evangelism. Sharing the gospel with others was scary. But riding a roller coaster is scary. That is why one rides them. The scariness is an adventure, the ride is exhilarating. The enemy would steal true adventure from us. Don’t let him.

Point 2 of 3: Kill. The mysterious woman of Proverbs 31:1-9 told her son to avoid drinking, a metaphor for forgetting one’s role. She told him to live up to the levels required/expected of a king and to protect and speak for those who are helpless. Today, the mute and helpless are the unborn. 1 in 3 Christian woman have an abortion. These women are much more likely to suffer psychological disorders later and experience shame, guilt, and brokenness because they are unable to seek forgiveness and healing.  Babies are killed and mother’s souls are grievously wounded.

Point 3 of 3: Destroy our mission. God intends this generation to make a difference, to carry out His purposes. To take actions and/or speak out. Failure to do so results from apathy. Apathy means “hard heart.” In this generation there is a word “meh.” Meh can be defined as a verbal shrugging of the shoulders and it is growing more widespread. At a time when we should be embracing the mission of going into the entire earth to share good news, the enemy promotes the response of meh — because he wants to destroy this generation’s mission.

Digging Deeper:

• What has been stolen from you? What are you now missing that you believe you previously possessed and used?
• What is your current identity? Who are you?
• What adventure calls to you? What stops you from pursuing it?
• What can others you trust do for you to help you recover your identify and mission?

Wrap-Up:

• Pray for each other to encourage recovery of identify in Christ
• Pray for each other for forgiveness and healing of secret shames and guilt.
• Prayerfully remind each other that all need saving and as we are able to give Jesus our guilt and shame, He is faithful to give us joy and life, healing and wholeness.

Outreach/Mission:

• We are not all called to be involved in every area of outreach. Some may seek to help the homeless, some others seek to help the unborn. What jazzes you? Think of a person whom you really hope will recover what has been stolen from them. What could you say to, or do for, that person this week?
• Do you want more information, or training, in the area of sharing good news? Who can you ask to teach you, or partner with you? Plan to speak with that person.

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Stock Market Prediction

The US stock market will continue to be volatile in 2011.  The DOW trading as high as 13,641 on June 6, 2011 and as low as 9,098 on Oct. 7, 2011.

On December 31, 2011 it will close at $10,372.14.  The graph will look like a big “M” with the second hump sickly smaller.

Oil Prices Prediction

The price of oil will increase to $110.25 per barrel on December 31, 2011, thank you OPEC.

Real Estate Predictions

Residential real estate values will continue to decline, even in central Texas.  Nationally they will decline 20.7%, in central Texas by 7.4%.  Too much supply at the end of the demand.

Commercial occupancy rates in central Texas will be at 71.32% on December 31, 2011.  Hey, I like my “home office.”

Foreclosure Predictions

1 out of every 3.1416 (or 31.83%) homes sold in 2011 in America will be a foreclosure sale.  So….

A new branch of the federal government will start up to assist in auctioning off foreclosures, akin to the RTC of the late 80s.  And there will be some of the worst junk food served at these auctions, so, BYOF (bring your own food).

Real Estate will continue to worsen.  42.2% of Americans with home mortgages will be upside down (market value of their homes exceed their mortgage balance) in 2011, it will be amazing how patient creditors will be trying not to flood the market with too much inventory at once.

Ironically, the number of Americans without any home mortgage, will rise.  In other words, Americans with cash will buy their homes out right.  Banks will be little or no help.

Crisis Predictions

In America, there will be no major oil spills, no category 5 hurricanes that hit America, no 7 point earthquakes, California mud slides will cease, and no major tsunamis world-wide.  Some minor flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys in late spring, and the usual forest fires out west in late summer, but not too serious.

Mostly only crises caused by Americans’ greed, fear and plain old stupidity, only to be greatly exacerbated by government intervention.  Obama’s approval rating will be as low as 31% due to his inability to understand our desire for capitalism, personal responsibility and freedom.  Americans will be both fed up with Obama and feel powerless to change the course of his socialism.  This frustration will explode in 2012 at the polls.

Political Predictions

House republicans will try rein in run-away government spending and to de-fund Obama-Care.  They will get mixed results, but the wound received from the bite of socialized medicine will not be able to be healed in 2011.  Sorry, this prognostication is not very measurable.  Who writes this stuff anyway:  “the bite of socialized medicine…”

And one for 2012:  Democrats will lose control of both houses, as well as the presidency.  But to whom…?  The Tea Party?

What do you think?

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My dad woke up one day and decided to make a Pro-Life music video. Little did I know the inescapable whirlwind his decision would produce.

More than 40 people worked for over two months to create what you can watch here. A Pro-Life video that I feel is a true representation of what really happens.

There are a few cameos by yours truly. My favorite is the coffee shop scene (1:45 in the video). In that scene you can see me in the background building the website the video is now embedded on. We almost broke the space time continuum I think

My dad, Tom Umstattd, wrote the song and played the guitars. The actors all came from the Austin Rhetoric Club. I tried out for the boyfriend but did not make the cut. The director, Alex Lerma, said I wasn’t be mean enough.

Our hope is that this video will re-energize the church to be actively pro-life. If it saves even one baby it will be a successes. The more it spreads the more impact it can have. Would you share  a link to the video on Facebook? Would you be willing to forward it to a friend?

What did you think when you first saw it? Was it what you were expecting? Leave a comment and let us know.

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Predicting the future is based on three things: cycles, trends and anomalies.  I have no crystal ball to anticipate anomalies. But I do watch cycles and trends. Here are 11 things I see happening in 2011.

Previous Predictions:

• 2010 Predictions (Score 7.5 out of 10)
• 2009 Predictions (Score 4 out of 9)

Prediction 1: New iPad With Camera

I predict that apple will come out with a new iPad in the first half of 2011. It will have a front facing camera. But even then video calls won’t catch on. Why? Because half the population is women and women feel uncomfortable being on camera without being dressed up. Also people don’t want others to know when they are not paying attention.

Prediction 2: Real Estate Market to Crash in Austin

Historically Austin tends to trail the rest of the country by about three years when it comes to downturns. Austin real estate has been overpriced for years and is ready for a big drop. With a solid republican majority in the Texas Legislature look for some significant budget cuts which may mean government layoffs.

I predict a 15% drop by the end of 2011.

Prediction 3: Voter ID Bill Will Pass This Year

Republicans in Texas have been trying to pass this bill for a decade and have been thwarted every session. Now they have enough votes to push it through.

Prediction 4: iPhone will come out on Verizon.

I think Steve Jobs has heard the customer outcry against AT&T. The AT&T iPhone will also come out and support 4G. For bonus points I predict that the next iPhone will have a chip that lets it go on any network.

Prediction 5: Sarah Palin will announce a bid for presidency.

Palin is surrounded by too many worshipers to not run. For bonus points I predict that she will continue to get tons of media publicity but will fail to win the primary in 2012 because the main body of republicans won’t think she can win the general election.

Prediction 6: Global Famine

Global Weather patters are changing and they have already led to crop failures in Russia, Florida and Australia. Food prices have already started to soar. In China there  food riots are breaking out in the streets. I see this trend continuing into 2011.

Famine may be a bit too strong of a word. Thankfully we have a free market and global distribution so I predict the impact to be a global rise of about 10%  in food prices which will hurt the poor. Start saving to help feed our brothers in poor nations.

Prediction 7: UT Make it to a Bowl Game

I think UT’s bad season was an anomaly. With a new coaching staff and an older, heaver offensive line I think Gilbert will lead the horns to victory this year. For bonus points I think the horns will either loose a BCS bowl or win a non BCS bowl.

Prediction 8: US Inflation to Rise to 5% or above

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing has flooded the world with dollars. Not only that but crop failures around the world are leading to higher food prices. This double pressure will lead to inflation.

Prediction 9: An Umstattd Book will be published.

There are three Umstattd books in the works this year and I predict that between the three of them one will get published.

Prediction 10: Unemployment to Remain High

I feel that our jobless recovery has been do the catastrophic rise in the minimum wage. The minimum wage jumped by 30% between 2007 and 2009. Do those dates look familiar? Those are the same dates as the recession. The likely cure for this minimum wage is inflation which won’t be enough to fix it this year. Right now unemployment is around 9.2%.

At the lowest I predict the rate will fall to 8.5% but I would not be surprised to see double digit unemployment by the end of 2011.

Prediction 11: 5,000 Saved Through 40 Days for Life

So far 3,599 babies have been saved through the efforts of folks just like you praying in front of abortion clinics. 40 Days for Life is growing and improving its sidewalk counseling approach.  For bonus points I predict that the number of workers who have quit will pass 50 and the number of facilities closed will pass 12.

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It’s that time of year again. Here is a recap of what happened to me in 2010, plus a scoring of my new years predictions.

2010 Predictions

Here are the predictions I made a year ago, along with a score of how I did.

1. Republicans will gain control of the house of representatives. (I nailed this one)
2. Democrats will hold on to the Senate. (Got this one too)
3. Rick Perry will be reelected Governor (Three out of three so far)
4. Debra Medina will get over 15% of the vote. (Despite Glen Becks’ ambush, Medina got 18% of the vote.)
5. Old fashioned publishers will start to get gobbled by trendier conglomerates. And for an extra point I am predicting that Thomas Nelson will by Harvest House. (I don’t know of this happening.)
6. The Apple Tablet will actually ship. It will be amazing and I will buy one  (It shipped, it was awesome and I bought one. I just missed the name.)
7. The Google Andriod platform will gain 20% market share. (As of October Android had 23% of the smartphone market according to ComScore)
8. The big product for 2010 will be the Kindle and the price will drop to $99 and sales of digital books will soar to over 70% of Amazon’s book sales. (The Kindle dropped from $259 to $139 so I almost got this one. )
9. Google Chrome will gain 25% market shake but the mac version will still be in Beta. (Didn’t’ quite get this one. Chrome only has 20% market share.)
10. The Tea party will start to emerge as an actual party but will not put any candidates on the 2010 ballot. Look for tea party candidates in 2012. (I think I got this one. What do you think?)

My score for 2010 is 7.5 out of 10 which is an improvement over last year.  My score for 2009 was 4 out of 9.

Rick Green

I spent the beginning of 2010 working to get Rick Green elected to the Texas Supreme Court. While he won the primary he lost in the runoff. Dave Lieber, a journalist from the Fort Worth Star Telegram, interviewed me about the election.

You can read the interview here.

Umstattd Media

Shortly after the campaign ended, I hired Hannah Hill to come work with me at Umstattd Media. Recently Cynthia Umstattd and Samantha Fagan have also joined the Umstattd Media team. Paul Hastings also jumps in when we need his special brand of awesome.

Umstattd Media has grown to over 100 clients. We have had the honor of building websites for some national figures like Claire Culwell, Abby Johnson and Mary DeMuth.

Austin Coalition for Life

My main focus for 2010 has been the pro-life movement. I was blessed to have a position on the Austin Coalition for Life Leadership Team. I got to help them with strategy, online marketing and even got to speak at several churches encouraging folks to participate in the 40 Days for Life.

I also worked with the Austin Rhetoric Club to fight Travis County Tax Funded Abortions. The photo above is my sister Cynthia testifying before the Central Health Board. You can watch the video of her speech here.

I worked with the Texas Alliance for Life to help them boost their Facebook page from 2500 fans to over 10,000 fans. The now have one of the biggest pro-life pages on Facebook.

Speaking

I feel that my mission in life is to “Help the Church use technology to advance the Kingdom. Until the seasons change.” This is my calling and my passion.

I love teaching. I speak for pay and I speak for free. Any chance to help the church use technology is a win for me. This year I have spoken between 30 and 40 times around the country. This photo is of a talk I gave at the C.S. Lewis Conference. I have also been on the radio four or five times mostly for pro-life stuff.

Almighty Music Video

My dad woke up one morning and decided to make a music video. At first I did not take him seriously but now I have been swept into the whirlwind.

What at first appeared to be a small project has become a massive undertaking involving dozens of people and thousands of hours of work. I hope to be able to share more with you about this project soon.

Advent Conspiracy

The Umstattd Family Advent Conspiracy went very well. I was a bit nervous leading into it, but it ended up being much more joyful and fun than Christmases in the past. We were able to throw a Christmas party which we had not been able to do in past years.

• John, my youngest brother, said that it was, “the best Christmas ever.”
• William said,  ”It was fun. We got/had to sleep in. We got less but better presents. I got a guitar and this blog.”
• My mom said, “The changes we made this year really were great. Everyone seems happier, less stressed, and able to enjoy one another more. We have been able to reach out to others more as well.”

Single

The most frequent question I get from older folks is “Are you seeing anyone.” I find it amusing how many different ways they ask without asking. The older I get the more I hear this question. The answer is “no.”  I have spent all of 2010 as a bachelor. The rumors of me getting engaged, while flattering, are untrue.

I realize my singleness is mostly my fault. I have spent most of my time working either on Umstattd Media or Pro-Life stuff. I haven’t spent the time taking care of myself like I should. I also have not spent much time with evangelical singles. I am fishing in a small pond.

God is teaching me contentment. I have learned that I don’t mind living on my own and that I don’t know as much as I think I do about relationships. Or about women for that matter

Looking Forward to 2011

I am optimistic about the new year. I hope to spend more time on my book Digital Cancer and actually ship it this year. I’m encouraged that Umstattd Media is starting to grow. I would like to thank all of you for standing with me and praying for me during this last season.

Tune in next week for my new years predictions for 2011.

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This year the Umstattd Family has changed the way we do Christmas. It is changing everything.

The Old Way

With seven people in the Umstattd Family Christmas got a bit out of hand. We would spend all December shopping to fill up the whole living room floor with heaps of gifts.

With the notable exception of my father, we had become materialistic. The gifts not the Giver had become the focus of our Christmas day.

The Advent Conspiracy

Geno Hildebrandt, the pastor of our church, started talking about the advent conspiracy and that got us thinking.  Could we do Christmas differently this year?

If you are unaware of The Advent Conspiracy you need to read this post right now.

In short, with the money Americans spend on Christmas we could solve the clean water epidemic and probably world hunger as well.

The Umstattd Family Meeting

So, we held a meeting. In typical Umstattd fashion this meeting was done according to Roberts Rules of Order.  We submitted and voted on bills, seconded amendments and tried to keep the talking to no more than three people at a time.

I was surprised that the younger members of our family were fine with getting fewer gifts this year. We all agreed that Christmas for our family had become too much about stuff and not enough about people.

Random Christmas photo from 1999

My dad felt it important for the children to buy into the changes. So, we voted on and passed the following “Family Bills.”

• Family Bill 1 Each child is to give a gift to only one other child. (We drew names out of a hat) This passed unanimously 7/0
• Family Bill 2 Mom & Dad will only give one gift per child. Gift is defined by one wrapped gift. This does not apply to candy and other very small stocking stuffers. This passed 7/0
• Family Bill 3 Gift decisions are to be made through subversive investigation and not direct interrogation whenever possible. This passed 5/2
• Family Bill 4 Family members are encouraged to thoughtfully reduce materialism by making gifts and giving perviously owned gifts in many cases. (My mom is doing most of her shopping on Craig’s List this year)  This passed 7/0
• Family Bill 5 Each family member is encouraged to go on a fun December outing with each other family member. These outings are in addition to group outings. This passed  7/0

Believe it or not these changes were the hardest on my mom. Gifts are one of her love languages and while shopping is a stress she enjoys it as a labor of love.  One thing we did not address in the family meeting was what to do with the money we were saving on gifts. One idea is to donate it to the Austin Coalition for Life but we have not yet decided.

The Results

Christmas hasn’t happened yet but here are the results so far.

• Less stress. Many of us are already done with our shopping because we have less to do.
• More time. We’ve made more Christmas cookies this year and my mom was able to clean out the ornaments which she has wanted to do for years. Also we are in the process of making a music video and finishing an audiobook (more on this later).
• More outings. David is still out of town but we are already doing more fun activities as a family that we wouldn’t have had time to do if we had been shopping.

Perhaps I will update this post and let you know how Christmas day went.

We Like Gifts

I don’t want to sound like a grinch who hates gifts. We just think it has gotten out of hand. Christmas is not about gifts. That is the lesson the Grinch learned, come to think about it.

The Ninja does not like holiday greed.

I had to share this video. Its about Ninjas and black Friday.

What do you think? How are you doing Christmas this year? Are you changing anything?

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Epic quests require epic reminders. As you build your organization here is some encouragement and advice.

You don’t have to do everything.

The Parato Phenomenon shows that 80% of the results come from only 20% of the effort. This means you can say “no” to a lot of things without suffering much loss. Saying “no” to 80% of opportunities could lead to only a 20% loss in outcome. Imagine a world with 80% less stress.

The key is to say “no” to the right things.

A clear goal and predetermined priorities will help you focus. Don’t forget to reevaluate those priorities. Don’t be afraid to kill the sacred cows if they get in the way of the goal.

YOU don’t have to do everything.

God has called you to be a leader. That means he has surrounded you with followers. These folks believe in your cause. Let them hold up your hands by delegating and empowering them to work on your behalf.

When you do a task that could be done by someone else you rob them of the eternal reward they could have earned. You also rob them the experience they could have gained. You think you are here to change the world. I think you are here to help create a team that will continue changing the world after you are gone. Do only what only you can do. Then, train others to do what only you can do. By doing this you will grow your team into a mighty force.

You don’t have to be at every meeting. In fact you should not be at every meeting. This will burn you out and limit grow. A sign of a healthy team is that the leader doesn’t have to be apart of everything for it to succeed.

Stay within your strengths. Delegate your weaknesses.

The more time you spend operating in your weaknesses the more you rob your organization of your strengths.  If you don’t know much about web design find someone else to build the website.

Delegation will be hard at first. In the early days of your organization you did do everything yourself. You did things your way. The right way. Delegation means allowing others to do things differently than you would have done them. This is hard. But doing everything yourself will burn you out and limit growth. Delegation is the only way to avoid failure in the long run.

Here are two keys for successful delegation.

• Key #1 Budget time for training. Your team will need training and time to learn. Don’t hang them out to dry by giving them a task and then letting them flounder.
• Key #2 Set specific goals. Even a low capacity person can produce high capacity results when driven by a clear goal. The goals you give should be clear, specific and time oriented.

As you delegate try to keep your people in their areas of strength. Nothing will burn your team out faster than working in areas of weakness. This requires hiring people who are different than you are.

Don’t Forget the Sabbath

God did not create us to work seven days a week. When He called you to this epic quest, He did not give you so much work that you must forget the Sabbath. This is not His way. If you find yourself working on Sunday find another day to rest.

It is morally wrong to work so many hours when so many are out of work.

Rest brings with it several great benefits:

• Rested ears listen better.
• Rested minds make better decisions.
• Rested hearts handle the emotional strain of leadership better.
• Rested bodies work faster.
• Rested eyes can see opportunities.

Practice the discipline of to do list keeping

Having a unknown amount of work hanging over your head is stressful and exhausting.

Keeping a daily todo list allows you to do two things:

1. Prioritize Actions. It is easier to stay within the critical 20% when we prioritize in the calm of the morning before the rush of the day sets upon us.
2. Delegate. When everything is on paper it is easier to see what can be delegated. Do only what only you can do.

Read Getting Things Done: The Art of Stress-Free Productivity by Dave Allen if you have not already.

Don’t forget how far you have already come.

As a young leader it is easy to get discouraged with the enormity of the task. You can look at the endless road before and despair. The giants seem unbeatable. The obstacles to great. Yet, God is doing amazing things! From the times of Christ to now God has been moving in the affairs of men. He has been moving in your life too.

The Gospel started 2,000 years ago and 7,000 miles away. And yet here you are standing on the shoulders of the saints who’ve gone before. Before you give up look back, take courage and get back into the action.

Don’t forget who’s got your back.

You don’t work for an impersonal general in the sky. You work for your Heavenly Father and co-labor with Christ. God has given you everything you need to do everything He has called you to do.

It can be scary to sit on your horse and watch the advance of the enemy. But don’t forget the nights who ride with you. Behind them stand a host of archers with powerful long bows of prayer. As the enemy advances he must pass through them to get to you.

You can do this. Christ is with you.

Feel free to share this article with other leaders in your life by using the icons below.

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First, Some Perspective

On September 11 2001

• 2,819 people died from terrorists.
• 3,700 people died from abortions.

We have had a 9/11 every day for the last 20 years. If you care about saving lives then terrorism is a distraction.

In 2001:

• 2,824 Americans died from terrorist attacks (2,819 9/11 deaths source + 5 anthrax deaths source).
• 16,037 Americans were murdered by other Americans (source).
• 42,196 died on American roadways (source).
• 853,485 died in American abortion facilities (source).

These numbers are from 2001; the year with the highest number of terrorism related deaths. You are more likely to die from lightning than from a terrorist in an airplane.

Looking at these numbers you should spend more time praying at abortion clinics and going to defensive driving than worrying about terrorists. If you are particularly concerned about saving life, get a concealed handgun. All of these things would be statistically more effective than groping people at the airport.

The The Science of Fear quotes a study that found if a plane crashed in America once per week, flying would still be safer than driving. When terrorism is put into context there is no rational justification for TSA’s invasions.

We are the Land of the Free and the Home of the Brave. To be free you must also be brave. Safety is not our god.

New procedures degrade our dignity.

Dignity is not a word you hear much any more. Martin Luther King Jr. marched for it. Everyone is born with it. The government wants to take it away.

Could you imagine anything more demeaning than the current TSA procedures? Getting ogled or fondled should not be part of the flying process. This is how the terrorists win: They scare us into abusing each other.

“But don’t other countries use similar procedures?”  You may ask.

Yes. But so what? Just because old world countries abuse their subjects gives us no justification to do likewise. Freedom and justice are what set us apart from the old world. That is why we left. Our ancestors wanted to come to a new world where citizens did not need to fear the government abusing them.

We are free! Why should we long to go back to the “safety” of slavery?

Terrorism doesn’t work.

The goal of terrorism is to strike terror into a population. This is their goal because terrorists lack the ability to actually harm.  They can’t conquer us, and even on their best day they can’t even pass the murder rate. An attack like 9/11 won’t work again. The old advice of “comply with hijackers” is gone. Hijacking only works when the passengers are docile, and the days of docile passengers came to an end when Flight 93 revolted.

Terrorism is not dangerous. Fear is. According to a study by the University of Michigan there were 1,018 additional traffic fatalities in 2001 because people were afraid to fly and, instead, chose to drive.

Terrorists have a very small tool belt. Hijacking doesn’t work and guns don’t work well on an armed population. Anthrax doesn’t work. Chemicals weapons only work when deployed with artillery or an air force. Bombs are really their only tool and bombs are a weak opponent for bomb-sniffing dogs and often require the bomber to sacrifice himself.

Once we decide to not let terrorism scare us, we rob the terrorists of their only effective weapon: fear.

Our Response

After we take a deep breath and stop panicking, this is what I think we should do in response to terrorism:

Bounce back

Our best response to terrorists is to show them they are ineffective. We do this by getting back to normal as soon as possible. This is what they do in Israel. After an attack they get back to business as fast as possible, and it frustrates the terrorists.

In hindsight, I wish we would have let commercial planes fly on September 12th.

Nuclear Protection

Nuclear bombs should be our primary focus. A suitcase nuke could depopulate a city for years. If we were wise we would spend the majority of our efforts on nuclear protection. Fortunately for us, nuclear weapons are heard to deploy by terrorists. Terrorists don’t have rockets or bombers so they need to sneak a Bomb into the country somehow.

Nuclear bombs give off radiation that can be picked up with special equipment. This radiation sniffing equipment is what we should be buying, not strip search scanners. We should have radiation scanners at every border crossing and at every airport. We should develop the technology to make compact scanners for every police car. Squad-car based scanners would more or less cover the whole country.

Airport Security

We should reset to pre 9/11 security and then make the following changes.

Change 1: Profiling – America is not being attacked by old women or small children. The threat comes from a few very specific profiles. People who fit a profile should go through a more strict screening process. Non-citizens should be particularly targeted. Profiling works in Israel and we would be wise to emulate them.

If positive profiles are too distasteful then we should at least use negative profiles. We should stop scanning minors and senior citizens. Has there ever been a terrorist older than 50? I doubt it.

Change 2: Background checks – Non-citizens traveling into and around this country should go through extensive background checks. I know we do this now but we could do it much better. Instead of funding an army of soldiers to topple governments we should have an army of spies infiltrating every terrorist organization in the world. Then when we check someone’s background we will actually have some useful data to check.

Change 3: Dogs – Bomb-sniffing dogs are effective and non intrusive.  I rarely see dogs at the airport. A dog should sniff every piece of luggage that goes onto a plane.

Change 4: Privatization – Airport screening is not a good role for the government.  Let the airlines do the screenings and they will compete on quality, safety, efficiency etc. If American Airlines wants to grope you and Delta doesn’t, the free market would reward the wiser company.

Typically when there is a successful terrorist attack, the airline that is hit goes out of business. Anyone remember Pan Am? The fear of bankruptcy motivates airlines toward quick and effective innovation.

Conclusion

Good policy is based on reason, not on irrational emotions like fear and revenge. If you look at America’s response to 9/11 you will find a lot more fear and revenge than reason. When you look at things rationally you see that changing the government in Iraq does not protect us from Saudi Arabian terrorists. You don’t fight non-governmental organizations by attacking governments. You don’t let terrorists scare you into destroying yourself.

Good policy is based on principles like life, liberty, justice, property and dignity. We can learn from other countries but we need to be careful what we bring over. What makes us different also makes us special.

What do you think? What should our response to 9/11 have been? What do you think about TSA’s new procedures?

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Power confuses and concerns me.

Here is the paradox:

• It is hard to do good without it.
• The more power a man attains, the more evil he commits.

In politics we often think: “If only we could get more power we could do more good.” But is this the case?

Three Stories -> One Questions

Can you fix a broken system by taking power from bad men and giving it to good men?

Here are three stories to explore this question.

Lelouch Vi Britannia

Lelouch saw his mother killed and his sister blinded and crippled. He dedicated his life to making the world a just and kind place. He denied himself earthly pleasures and refused to drink the perks of leadership. He received the power to bend others to his will. He went out to destroy evil.

But evil is not a person you can kill. It is an infection that infects even its attackers. Despite his selfless motives, his desire to do good brought a harvest of evil.

The more Lelush fought evil the more evil he became. His goal of justice allowed him to justify unjust acts. The more power he attained the more destruction came to those around him. He is redeemed only through his death.

What can save such a man?

Boromir son of Denethor

Boromir grew up fighting evil. He could see it out his window. He could hear it in his sleep. He was a powerful man, but not strong enough to save his people. He knew they would die unless someone acted.

If not him then who?
If not now then when?

Then he had the opportunity for true power. The One Ring was within his grasp.

The ring used his good intentions to do evil. He lost his relationships with those close to him. As he reached for ultimate power, it destroyed him.

His redemption came only through death.

Absalom son of David

Absalom had everything it took to be a good leader. He had favor, good looks and brilliance. When someone tried to bow to him he would pick them up and give them a hug. But unlike his father, he did not know God.

His father David walked a path of brokenness and suffering that instilled godly character. Absalom walked the easy path of a wealthy prince. He lacked the character needed to temper his ambition.

His lust for power destroyed his relationships and everyone around him. Ultimately he lost his life unredeemed.

The fruit of ambition.

In each of these three stories ambition led to betrayal.

Here is the progression:

1. Longing to do good for others leads to ambition.
2. Ambition leads to a lust for power.
3. Lust for power leads to a love of power.
4. Love for power grows to surpass love for others.
5. Others are betrayed to gain more power.
6. Betrayal breaks relationships.
7. Death

Ambition hurts those closest to you. Can you name a powerful man who’s family is healthy? The difficulty of finding such a man breaks my heart.

The cost of avoiding power.

So should we forsake ambition? What happens when just men avoid power? According to Socrates, they are punished. They are ruled by men lest just than themselves.

Or put another way, evil flourishes when good men avoid power.

The villains of history wanted to make the world a better place.

• Oliver Cromwell wanted to make the world more peaceful & holy by removing Catholicism from Ireland.
  • Millions died through starvation and war.
• Margarete Sanger wanted to create a world where every child was healthy and wanted.
  • Millions died through abortion.
• Adolph Hitler wanted to remove war and disease by eliminating “imperfect” races.
  • Millions died through holocaust and war.
• Joseph Stalin wanted a Utopian paradise by eliminating the class and wealth.
  • Millions died frozen to death in Siberia.
• Pol Pot wanted to create an agrarian paradise where everyone worked the collective land in peace.
  • Millions died from starvation and murder.

A Paradox

• Peace is the justification for war.
• Saving life is the justification to take life.
• Pleasure is the justification for rape.
• Safety is the justification of slavery.
• Equality is the justification of theft.

America has killed perhaps more foreign civilians than any other nation. Our excuse? Saving lives. Why is it right when we do it but wrong when Japan does it?

Does good justify evil before God? Does He judge our actions or our intentions?

Power does not corrupt.

In the book Whist by David Umstattd, Whist asks his mentor Skylock if power corrupts. “Heavens no” Skylock responds “Power only reveals your inner corruption.”

Perhaps Skylock has it right. What if power only magnifies corruption. One of the oldest sayings in the world says, “From evil people come evil deeds.”

Power x Corruption = Evil Committed

An evil man with no power often does less evil than a good man with power.

The only cure for evil.

When God rebooted the world after the flood he only changed one thing: how long people lived. God limited man’s life to 120 years to limit the amount of wickedness man could perform. This heavenly term limit kept the world from going bad as quickly the second time.

We are born innocent, with only the seeds of evil in our hearts. As we grow older these seeds bring forth greater wickedness. Our knowledge, experience and reputation give us power to do evil which makes us evil.

Few ever see this process reverse. Old age may take away our ability to do bad, but who becomes more just? History shows us that even Christian leaders fail to finish well. Is the same is true for us? Do we just lack the spotlight of power to reveal our inner corruption? There will come a day when the light will shine on the strong and weak alike.

I am convinced that this is why people die. Only death can purge us from sin.

“He himself bore our sins in his body on the tree, so that we might die to sins and live for righteousness; by his wounds you have been healed.” 1 Peter 2:24

One Last Story

In the movie Blind Side, Leigh Anne Tuohy has power to bend people to her will. But something is different about her, instead of doing evil, she does good.

The difference?

• Motivation: Her motivation is love.
• Safe Power: Her power is inferential. Instead of forcing people to comply she convinces them to choose themselves. I think this is an important difference.

Instead of trying to get more power she does what she can with what she has.

What do you think?

• Do you agree with my analysis?
• Do you think that power corrupts or reveals corruption?
• What should our response be to the problem of power?

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Praying aloud can be scary particularly in a group setting where others can agree or disagree.

Fear in Prayer

Praying out loud can hit the root of our insecurities. We fear man. We fear our own pride. But it is as we pray anyway that we begin to find true healing. What better way to find freedom from the fear of man than in prayer to God.

Remember, if you have turned from your sins and put your trust in Jesus Christ you have become a child of God (Romans 8:16, 1 John 3:1-3). This makes talking to God aloud no more strange than talking to a human father. Praying aloud forces us to view God as our Father for how else could we even approach Him?

Viewing God as our Father by no way diminishes his grandeur. Jesus knew the perfect balance when he prayed in this way “‘Our Father in heaven, hallowed be your name, your kingdom come, your will be done on earth as it is in heaven.” Mathew 6:9b-10

Pride in Prayer

Sometimes people refrain from praying out loud because they don’t want others to think they are proud. This is a poisonous blend of pride and fear. The antidote for this toxin is faith and action.

We don’t want to be the pharisee who prays on the street corner just to be heard by men. But the solution is not to hide in fear. That is the Devil’s solution. The Kingdom path is the path of faith and action.

You won’t overcome this challenge until you start praying out loud. Ask God for humility. Fear God. Focus on Jesus. This takes a mental discipline that you only learn through practice.

What do you think?

• Are you afraid to pray out loud? Why do you think that is?
• For those of you who overcame this fear how did you do it?

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Election day is here! Every cycle I am surprised how many people don’t know they can legally vote twice on election day.

3 Steps to Become a Voting Ninja

Step #1 – Vote in the Primary Election

Democrat or Republican. You can vote early or on Election Day. But you must vote in the primary to be eligible to attend your precinct convention. This is your opportunity to support pro-life candidates!

Step #2 – Attend your Precinct Convention

Your precinct convention is usually at your neighborhood polling place. You can pass pro-life resolutions and get yourself elected as a delegate to your party’s county/district convention.

Step #3 – Vote on resolutions and delegates.

It’s fun!

Wait… What?

What is a Precinct Convention?

It’s a small meeting of voters from your neighborhood. If you voted in either party’s Primary, you can attend.

Voters at the convention will do two things:

1. Choose delegates to go to your party’s county/district convention on Saturday, March 20. This is extremely important; that’s where county platforms are passed and delegates are elected to the state conventions in June.
2. Pass “resolutions” stating what your party (Democrat or Republican) should stand for.

When & Where is it held?

The Precinct Convention will be held on March 2 at 8:00 p.m. (usually) at your neighborhood polling location. For the precise place and time, look for a sign when you vote or ask the election judge.

Who comes to precinct conventions?

Regular people just like you who want to make a difference. You don’t have to be experienced to attend.

Why attend a precinct convention?

It is the only way we keep the Republican Party pro-life.

Every two years the parties re-decide where they stand on the issues. If you ever want to see change it starts in your life and in your neighborhood.

Precinct Convention resources:

• Texas Alliance for Life Precinct Convention Guide (resourced for this post)
• Texas Home School Coalition Precinct Convention Guide
• Overview of the process from the Dallas Morning News
• Video of a sample precinct convention.

Recommended Resolutions

These are good resolutions to present if you are just getting started. You can also modify them for an issue you are passionate about. Make sure to bring 5 copies.

• Parental Rights Act (Pro-Homeschooling)
• Daytime Curfew (Pro-Homeschooling)
• Cut tax funding from Planned Parenthood (Pro-Life)
• Texas Sovereignty (Pro-Liberty)
• Ending Taxpayer-Funded Lobbying (Pro-Liberty)

If you don’t know who to vote for feel free to check out my voter’s guide.

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As you may know, I teach on technology a lot. Several of you have asked when my next classes are. So here you go here is a list of some of my upcoming talks. I would love to see you there!

How Everything Has Changed & Nothing is New

What the changes in Social Media mean for your business.

• Date: March 2 (8-9:30am)
• Cost: Free (registration required)
• City: Austin, TX
• Register Now
  

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For those of you who live outside Texas please forgive this post. We are having an important election and I feel it is important we vote in the right folks.

Five Voting Tips

Here are some general principles use:

1. Don’t vote because you recognize the name. If you recognize their name, they were probably a hooligan caught in some scandal. Or they are the richest candidate. Or the press likes them the most. All bad reasons.
   • If you don’t know anything about either candidate don’t vote for either one.
   • Don’t water down the votes of the informed voters.
2. Print out a sample ballot before you go to the polls. You don’t want to be surprised by a race you don’t recognize. To find your sample ballot just google “YourCountyName County Sample Ballot.” Here are two you may find helpful:
   • Travis County Sample Ballot
   • Williamson County Sample Ballot
3. Vote early. Chances are something will happen on election day and you won’t get around to voting. Make sure you vote by voting early.
4. The challenger is generally safer than the incumbent. Elected officials tend to compromise the longer they stay in office. The challenger who has yet to compromise and is often the safer bet.
5. Bring someone with you to the polls. Most Christians only vote once every two years for president. They don’t realize that was the least important election of the year. Your friends probably don’t know about the election. Bring a friend and double your vote.

My Voting Philosophy

I vote pro-life first, if the race effects life and most do.

Then, I tend to pick:

• Candidates with integrity (when I can tell which is hard).
• Candidates who want to promote liberty and personal responsibility.
• Challengers over incumbents.
• Tea Party folks over Old Guard Republicans.
• Candidates who see the Church as the answer instead of the government.

Statewide Races

Here are my picks:

• Governor: Rick Perry & Debra Medina (I will be personally voting for Debra Medina)
• Supreme Court Place 3: Rick Green
• Supreme Court Place 9: Eva Guzman
• Railroad Commissioner: Victor Carrillo
• Full Voters Guide

Full Voter’s Guide

I put together a one page voters guide you can take with you into the voting booth. It has local races as well as state wide races. If it doesn’t have all your candidates see the resources below.

• Download the Thomas Umstattd Voters Guide (PDF)
• You are welcome to share this guide with your friends.
• It is legal to take this Voters Guide into the voting booth with you.

Helpful Voting Resources

These are some of the resources I used to put together my voting guide.

• Texas Early Voting Locations (March 2010)
• Texas Alliance for Life Voter’s Guide (March 2010)
• Free Market Foundation Voter’s Guide (March 2010)
• Texas Right to Life Voter’s Guide (March 2010)
• Texas Homeschool Coalition Endorsements (March 2010)
• Christian Voter’s Guide

What Do You Think?

• Do you agree with my picks?
• Why?
• Have you voted yet?

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For those of you who follow this blog you know that I endorsed Rick Perry back in September. So why would I now vote for Medina?

Enough people have asked me this question that I have decided to answer it here.

The strategic reason to back Medina.

In the political world there are two types of people: pragmatists and idealists.

Idealists are true believers.

Idealists have a political philosophy and their first loyalty is to that philosophy. They don’t compromise often and you can find them on the far ends of the isle. Public opinion does not sway them. Writing them does little good for their minds are made up.

Pragmatists want to get things done.

Pragmatists are drawn to power like a fat man to a Chinese buffet. They generally pick whatever party has the majority. If the party in power switches look for them to change parties as well.

You can get a pragmatist to make good policy but you generally have to pressure him first. He has to know enacting good policy will increase his power.

Right now Kay Bailey Hutchinson is one of the last of the Pro-Roe v Wade Republicans. Her existence makes pragmatic republicans feel safe waffling on abortion just like Kay does. The dance is always the same: Talk pro-life in the primary… avoid the issue after that.

If Medina gets more votes than Hutchinson it marks the end of Pro-Roe republicans in Texas. Kay Bailey Hutchinson is one of the best known Texas politicians ever. Medina is a no name from a small Texas town no one has heard of. A big reason Kay is falling behind is because she is Pro-Roe.

This has happened before.

When William Wilberforce’s bill to abolish the slave trade finally passed, it was by a 283 to 16 landslide. Why after 20 years of failure would the bill pass by so much? Wilberforce, the idealists finally got enough weight on his side. The pragmatist politicians realized they would get more power by voting for abolition. They all flopped over to his side all at once.

What will happen if Medina makes the run off? The pragmatists will see they can get more power when they are pro-life. They will flop over to the life side of the teeter totter. This may give us the weight we need to see real change.

We are talking state and nation wide implications here.

What I like about Medina.

I like how:

• Medina is a true believer in life, liberty & property.
• Medina has breathed new life into the Republican Party.
• Medina answered the questions in the debates.
• Medina is well studied. People criticize her lack of experience but never her lack of knowledge. She knows her stuff.
• Medina is an idealist.

I still like Perry.

While the cronyism and forcing STD vaccinations on 12 year old girls makes me squeamish, I generally like Rick Perry.

Every year however cold or empty he always speaks at the Texas Rally for Life. Perry is a true believer in life, regardless of his other shortcomings. Rick is also a family friend and a great guy. I fully intend to vote for him in November, assuming he wins the primary which I expect he will.

What do you think?

• Who do you plan to vote for?
• Why?
• Do you think a Medina/Perry run off will tip the balance of power pro-life?

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