It is that time again. Time to l0ok back on 2011 and summarize what I’ve been up to all year in 1000 words or less. But first lets score my 2011 predictions.

Scoring the 2011 Predictions

Prediction 1: New iPad With Camera

Got it, bought it, love it.
1 point.

Prediction 2: Real Estate Market to Crash in Austin

The prices in Austin droped by more than 15% as I predicted. The prices in some neighborhoods have dropped by as much as 200%. I know an investor who just bought a 3/2 foreclosure for $30,000 in South Austin.
1 point
Prediction 3: Voter ID Bill Will Pass This Year

I still can’t believe we failed to pass the voter ID bill this year. I want to give my self a point for this just for my denial. (Editors note: I have been corrected on Facebook. The Voter ID did pass after all. It is just being challenged in the courts which was to be expected )
1 points

Prediction 4: iPhone will come out on Verizon.

Hell froze over and this actually happened. No more are iPhone users tied to just one bad carrier. Now we have three bad carriers to choose from
1 point

Prediction 5: Sarah Palin will announce a bid for presidency.

No Palin run No Points for me
0 points

Prediction 6: Global Famine

Global food prices soured to all time highs in February and then started to taper off by the end of year. I’m going to give myself half a point for this one.
0.5 Points

Prediction 7: UT Make it to a Bowl Game

Yes we did, and we won that bowl game too 21 to 10.
1 points

Prediction 8: US Inflation to Rise to 5% or above

Current government numbers, if you believe them, have inflation at 3.4%. This number comes from the consumer price index. If you measure the dollar against Gold then inflation is indeed above 5%. Should I get a point for this? I say no.
0 points.

Prediction 9: An Umstattd Book will be published.

The one prediction I could control and I failed to deliver the goods. My brother David decided to write a 4th book instead of finishing his first one. His books are amazing but right now you have to be an Umstattd or a girlfriend to read them.
0 points

Prediction 10: Unemployment to Remain High
Last year I predict the rate would only fall to 8.5% according to our current numbers for November the unemployment rate dropped to 8.6%.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been lowering the unemployment rate by saying people are giving up looking for work. So hopelessness not job creation is lowing this number.
1 Point.

Prediction 11: 5,000 Saved Through 40 Days for Life

40 days for life reports that 5045 lives have been saved.  And those are just the ones we know about. I am very happy to give myself a point for this prediction and to applaud all of you who have spent time praying out in front of abortion clinics. It really makes a difference.
1 Point

Total score 7.5 out of 11

My First Sermon

I gave my first legit Sunday Morning sermon in back in January of 2011. You and listen to it here. It was on what is normally called “low attendance Sunday” because of a leadership retreat that 30% of the church attended. But so many of you came out to hear me that filled Hope Chapel. Thank you.

My Political Activities

I have done a pretty good job staying out of politics this year despite being very frustrated with the incompetence in Washington amongst republicans. My only political action to speak of was to coach students at Patriot Academy and to donate money to Ron Paul which I recommend you do as well. Every dollar you give Ron Paul advances his ideas which is exactly what this country needs: The truth.

2011 Reading

I read 69 books in 2011.   Some of my favorites were:

1. Steve Jobs
2. Hunger Games
3. EntreLeadership by Dave Ramsey
4. Delivering Happiness
5. The Facebook Effect
6. Guns Germs and Steel
7. The Black Swan
8. The Science of Fear
9. The Eye of the World
10. Me Myself & Bob

You can see the full list on my Goodreads profile along with my reviews and ratings.

Castle Media Group LLC

In July I launched a new company named Castle Media Group LLC. It is a web marketing holding company that currently employes 10 people. Castle Media Group has the following subsidiaries.

Author Media

Author Media does web design and development for authors. It is also the new home for the Author Tech Tips blog. We help authors attract publishers, sell books and win more speaking gigs.

Umstattd Media

This is our web design for small businesses brand. I had plans to cancel Umstattd Media but the name ID, domain authority and referral base were just too high to turn away. At some point in the future we will launch a brand for small businesses that is easier to spell.

Webroots Media

Webroots Media designs websites for political organizations. Our goal is to do for other conservative candidates and organizations what we did for Rick Green. Webroots Media does more than just websites it is full service online marketing arm helping campaigns with Facebok Advertising, Search Engine Optimization, Email Marketing and more.

Blue Dove Designs

Blue Dove Designs is our first acquisition. We purchased this company from Jim Camomile in December or 2011.  Jim is now apart of our team and helping us launch some exciting new products for 2012.

Summary of 2011

That is a quick summary of some of what I’ve been up to. I’m sorry I have not updated this blog more frequently. Many of you have chastised me for not posting here and on Practical Courtship. All I can say is that running a business is a lot of work and this blog has had to take a back seat. On the plus side I have some exciting new year predictions coming out tomorrow. So stay tuned.

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Stock Market Prediction

The US stock market will continue to be volatile in 2011.  The DOW trading as high as 13,641 on June 6, 2011 and as low as 9,098 on Oct. 7, 2011.

On December 31, 2011 it will close at $10,372.14.  The graph will look like a big “M” with the second hump sickly smaller.

Oil Prices Prediction

The price of oil will increase to $110.25 per barrel on December 31, 2011, thank you OPEC.

Real Estate Predictions

Residential real estate values will continue to decline, even in central Texas.  Nationally they will decline 20.7%, in central Texas by 7.4%.  Too much supply at the end of the demand.

Commercial occupancy rates in central Texas will be at 71.32% on December 31, 2011.  Hey, I like my “home office.”

Foreclosure Predictions

1 out of every 3.1416 (or 31.83%) homes sold in 2011 in America will be a foreclosure sale.  So….

A new branch of the federal government will start up to assist in auctioning off foreclosures, akin to the RTC of the late 80s.  And there will be some of the worst junk food served at these auctions, so, BYOF (bring your own food).

Real Estate will continue to worsen.  42.2% of Americans with home mortgages will be upside down (market value of their homes exceed their mortgage balance) in 2011, it will be amazing how patient creditors will be trying not to flood the market with too much inventory at once.

Ironically, the number of Americans without any home mortgage, will rise.  In other words, Americans with cash will buy their homes out right.  Banks will be little or no help.

Crisis Predictions

In America, there will be no major oil spills, no category 5 hurricanes that hit America, no 7 point earthquakes, California mud slides will cease, and no major tsunamis world-wide.  Some minor flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys in late spring, and the usual forest fires out west in late summer, but not too serious.

Mostly only crises caused by Americans’ greed, fear and plain old stupidity, only to be greatly exacerbated by government intervention.  Obama’s approval rating will be as low as 31% due to his inability to understand our desire for capitalism, personal responsibility and freedom.  Americans will be both fed up with Obama and feel powerless to change the course of his socialism.  This frustration will explode in 2012 at the polls.

Political Predictions

House republicans will try rein in run-away government spending and to de-fund Obama-Care.  They will get mixed results, but the wound received from the bite of socialized medicine will not be able to be healed in 2011.  Sorry, this prognostication is not very measurable.  Who writes this stuff anyway:  “the bite of socialized medicine…”

And one for 2012:  Democrats will lose control of both houses, as well as the presidency.  But to whom…?  The Tea Party?

What do you think?

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Predicting the future is based on three things: cycles, trends and anomalies.  I have no crystal ball to anticipate anomalies. But I do watch cycles and trends. Here are 11 things I see happening in 2011.

Previous Predictions:

• 2010 Predictions (Score 7.5 out of 10)
• 2009 Predictions (Score 4 out of 9)

Prediction 1: New iPad With Camera

I predict that apple will come out with a new iPad in the first half of 2011. It will have a front facing camera. But even then video calls won’t catch on. Why? Because half the population is women and women feel uncomfortable being on camera without being dressed up. Also people don’t want others to know when they are not paying attention.

Prediction 2: Real Estate Market to Crash in Austin

Historically Austin tends to trail the rest of the country by about three years when it comes to downturns. Austin real estate has been overpriced for years and is ready for a big drop. With a solid republican majority in the Texas Legislature look for some significant budget cuts which may mean government layoffs.

I predict a 15% drop by the end of 2011.

Prediction 3: Voter ID Bill Will Pass This Year

Republicans in Texas have been trying to pass this bill for a decade and have been thwarted every session. Now they have enough votes to push it through.

Prediction 4: iPhone will come out on Verizon.

I think Steve Jobs has heard the customer outcry against AT&T. The AT&T iPhone will also come out and support 4G. For bonus points I predict that the next iPhone will have a chip that lets it go on any network.

Prediction 5: Sarah Palin will announce a bid for presidency.

Palin is surrounded by too many worshipers to not run. For bonus points I predict that she will continue to get tons of media publicity but will fail to win the primary in 2012 because the main body of republicans won’t think she can win the general election.

Prediction 6: Global Famine

Global Weather patters are changing and they have already led to crop failures in Russia, Florida and Australia. Food prices have already started to soar. In China there  food riots are breaking out in the streets. I see this trend continuing into 2011.

Famine may be a bit too strong of a word. Thankfully we have a free market and global distribution so I predict the impact to be a global rise of about 10%  in food prices which will hurt the poor. Start saving to help feed our brothers in poor nations.

Prediction 7: UT Make it to a Bowl Game

I think UT’s bad season was an anomaly. With a new coaching staff and an older, heaver offensive line I think Gilbert will lead the horns to victory this year. For bonus points I think the horns will either loose a BCS bowl or win a non BCS bowl.

Prediction 8: US Inflation to Rise to 5% or above

The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing has flooded the world with dollars. Not only that but crop failures around the world are leading to higher food prices. This double pressure will lead to inflation.

Prediction 9: An Umstattd Book will be published.

There are three Umstattd books in the works this year and I predict that between the three of them one will get published.

Prediction 10: Unemployment to Remain High

I feel that our jobless recovery has been do the catastrophic rise in the minimum wage. The minimum wage jumped by 30% between 2007 and 2009. Do those dates look familiar? Those are the same dates as the recession. The likely cure for this minimum wage is inflation which won’t be enough to fix it this year. Right now unemployment is around 9.2%.

At the lowest I predict the rate will fall to 8.5% but I would not be surprised to see double digit unemployment by the end of 2011.

Prediction 11: 5,000 Saved Through 40 Days for Life

So far 3,599 babies have been saved through the efforts of folks just like you praying in front of abortion clinics. 40 Days for Life is growing and improving its sidewalk counseling approach.  For bonus points I predict that the number of workers who have quit will pass 50 and the number of facilities closed will pass 12.

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It’s that time of year again. Here is a recap of what happened to me in 2010, plus a scoring of my new years predictions.

2010 Predictions

Here are the predictions I made a year ago, along with a score of how I did.

1. Republicans will gain control of the house of representatives. (I nailed this one)
2. Democrats will hold on to the Senate. (Got this one too)
3. Rick Perry will be reelected Governor (Three out of three so far)
4. Debra Medina will get over 15% of the vote. (Despite Glen Becks’ ambush, Medina got 18% of the vote.)
5. Old fashioned publishers will start to get gobbled by trendier conglomerates. And for an extra point I am predicting that Thomas Nelson will by Harvest House. (I don’t know of this happening.)
6. The Apple Tablet will actually ship. It will be amazing and I will buy one  (It shipped, it was awesome and I bought one. I just missed the name.)
7. The Google Andriod platform will gain 20% market share. (As of October Android had 23% of the smartphone market according to ComScore)
8. The big product for 2010 will be the Kindle and the price will drop to $99 and sales of digital books will soar to over 70% of Amazon’s book sales. (The Kindle dropped from $259 to $139 so I almost got this one. )
9. Google Chrome will gain 25% market shake but the mac version will still be in Beta. (Didn’t’ quite get this one. Chrome only has 20% market share.)
10. The Tea party will start to emerge as an actual party but will not put any candidates on the 2010 ballot. Look for tea party candidates in 2012. (I think I got this one. What do you think?)

My score for 2010 is 7.5 out of 10 which is an improvement over last year.  My score for 2009 was 4 out of 9.

Rick Green

I spent the beginning of 2010 working to get Rick Green elected to the Texas Supreme Court. While he won the primary he lost in the runoff. Dave Lieber, a journalist from the Fort Worth Star Telegram, interviewed me about the election.

You can read the interview here.

Umstattd Media

Shortly after the campaign ended, I hired Hannah Hill to come work with me at Umstattd Media. Recently Cynthia Umstattd and Samantha Fagan have also joined the Umstattd Media team. Paul Hastings also jumps in when we need his special brand of awesome.

Umstattd Media has grown to over 100 clients. We have had the honor of building websites for some national figures like Claire Culwell, Abby Johnson and Mary DeMuth.

Austin Coalition for Life

My main focus for 2010 has been the pro-life movement. I was blessed to have a position on the Austin Coalition for Life Leadership Team. I got to help them with strategy, online marketing and even got to speak at several churches encouraging folks to participate in the 40 Days for Life.

I also worked with the Austin Rhetoric Club to fight Travis County Tax Funded Abortions. The photo above is my sister Cynthia testifying before the Central Health Board. You can watch the video of her speech here.

I worked with the Texas Alliance for Life to help them boost their Facebook page from 2500 fans to over 10,000 fans. The now have one of the biggest pro-life pages on Facebook.

Speaking

I feel that my mission in life is to “Help the Church use technology to advance the Kingdom. Until the seasons change.” This is my calling and my passion.

I love teaching. I speak for pay and I speak for free. Any chance to help the church use technology is a win for me. This year I have spoken between 30 and 40 times around the country. This photo is of a talk I gave at the C.S. Lewis Conference. I have also been on the radio four or five times mostly for pro-life stuff.

Almighty Music Video

My dad woke up one morning and decided to make a music video. At first I did not take him seriously but now I have been swept into the whirlwind.

What at first appeared to be a small project has become a massive undertaking involving dozens of people and thousands of hours of work. I hope to be able to share more with you about this project soon.

Advent Conspiracy

The Umstattd Family Advent Conspiracy went very well. I was a bit nervous leading into it, but it ended up being much more joyful and fun than Christmases in the past. We were able to throw a Christmas party which we had not been able to do in past years.

• John, my youngest brother, said that it was, “the best Christmas ever.”
• William said,  ”It was fun. We got/had to sleep in. We got less but better presents. I got a guitar and this blog.”
• My mom said, “The changes we made this year really were great. Everyone seems happier, less stressed, and able to enjoy one another more. We have been able to reach out to others more as well.”

Single

The most frequent question I get from older folks is “Are you seeing anyone.” I find it amusing how many different ways they ask without asking. The older I get the more I hear this question. The answer is “no.”  I have spent all of 2010 as a bachelor. The rumors of me getting engaged, while flattering, are untrue.

I realize my singleness is mostly my fault. I have spent most of my time working either on Umstattd Media or Pro-Life stuff. I haven’t spent the time taking care of myself like I should. I also have not spent much time with evangelical singles. I am fishing in a small pond.

God is teaching me contentment. I have learned that I don’t mind living on my own and that I don’t know as much as I think I do about relationships. Or about women for that matter

Looking Forward to 2011

I am optimistic about the new year. I hope to spend more time on my book Digital Cancer and actually ship it this year. I’m encouraged that Umstattd Media is starting to grow. I would like to thank all of you for standing with me and praying for me during this last season.

Tune in next week for my new years predictions for 2011.

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Last year I made 9 predictions about 2009. My score for 2009 was 4 out of 9 predictions correct. Here are the predictions I made last year.

9 Predictions for 2009

Prediction 1

“Obama will pass the Fairness act but it will only apply to political talk. It will be the best thing to happen to the conservative movement. Conservative talk radio needs to die.”

Outcome: Fail! Obama chose to take over our health instead of our talk.

Prediction 2

“5 of my current blog readers will start their own Podcasts. One will hit the big time with his or her podcast.”

Outcome: Fail! the only person to start a Podcast this year was Raz Shafer.and his podcast has podfaded.

Prediction 3

“There will be continued violence in the middle east.”

Outcome: Half fail. Israel has been very peaceful this year although Iraq has been hotter than normal.

Prediction 4

“Texas will experience a major natural disaster of some kind.”

Outcome: Fail! And thank God for that.

Prediction 5

“The economy will end 2009 at about the same strength it began 2009. Win! The Dow is up about 1000 points but is about where it was a year ago.”

Outcome: Win! Who would have believed we would have been about the same after a year. We went down and we came back up.

Prediction 6

“Apple will buy Adobe.”

Outcome: Fail!

Prediction 7

“Obama will maintain ridiculously high support ratings while failing to get anything done other than the fairness act.”

Outcome: Half Win! Obama does not have ridiculously high ratings but he hasn’t gotten anything done either.

Prediction 8

Another Patriot Academy alum will declare intentions to run for something. Got this one right.

Outcome: Win! David Bellow declared that he is running for County Commissioner.

Prediction 9

“Half of you will start using Twitter.”

Outcome: Win! I think this was almost true. Many of you didn’t even know what Twitter was a year ago. Many of you started using Twitter but perhaps not half.

Ok so I don’t have a crystal ball and my predictions were lame. That is if you count predicting that violence in the middle east as a legitimate prediction. And now… Ten predictions for 2010.

10 Predictions for 2010

1. Republicans will gain control of the house of representatives.
2. Democrats will hold on to the Senate.
3. Rick Perry will be reelected Governor
4. Debra Medina will get over 15% of the vote.
5. Old fashioned publishers will start to get gobbled by trendier conglomerates. And for an extra point I am predicting that Thomas Nelson will by Harvest House.
6. The Apple Tablet will actually ship. It will be amazing and I will buy one
7. The Google Andriod platform will gain 20% market share.
8. The big product for 2010 will be the Kindle and the price will drop to $99 and sales of digital books will soar to over 70% of Amazon’s book sales.
9. Google Chrome will gain 25% market shake but the mac version will still be in Beta.
10. The Tea party will start to emerge as an actual party but will not put any candidates on the 2010 ballot. Look for tea party candidates in 2012.

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Hello everyone. Today marks my 100th post. WooHoo!

Thank you for all of your feedback and support. Out of the 100 posts I have received over 230 comments. There would be no point to this blog if you were not here to read it. Thank you.

Goodbye 2008

2008 was a difficult year in many ways. Many things died this year. Ron Paul’s hopes to win the primary, Brook Audio, and my Grandfather among others.

Hello 2009

On the plus side 2009 seems to be the year of New Beginnings. I am rethinking my life. Every part of it. There are a lot of things on the table right now.

Questions for 2009

• I am thinking about moving to either New Zealand or Austin, TX. What do you think?
• What do you think about me getting an MBA at UT Austin or Acton ?
• The publishing industry is in a panic and not putting out many new books right now. Should I self publish Digital Cancer?

9 Predictions for 2009

1. Obama will pass the Fairness act but it will only apply to political talk. It will be the best thing to happen to the conservative movement. Conservative talk radio needs to die.
2. 5 of my current blog readers will start their own Podcasts. One will hit the big dim with his or her podcast.
3. There will be continued violence in the middle east. (I need at least one to be right
4. Texas will experience a major natural disaster of some kind.
5. The economy will end 2009 at about the same strength it began 2009.
6. Apple will buy Adobe.
7. Obama will maintain ridiculously high support ratings while failing to get anything done other than the fairness act.
8. Another Patriot Academy alum will declare intentions to run for something (no it won’t be me .
9. Half of you will start using Twitter .

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