Stock Market Prediction

The US stock market will continue to be volatile in 2011.  The DOW trading as high as 13,641 on June 6, 2011 and as low as 9,098 on Oct. 7, 2011.

On December 31, 2011 it will close at $10,372.14.  The graph will look like a big “M” with the second hump sickly smaller.

Oil Prices Prediction

The price of oil will increase to $110.25 per barrel on December 31, 2011, thank you OPEC.

Real Estate Predictions

Residential real estate values will continue to decline, even in central Texas.  Nationally they will decline 20.7%, in central Texas by 7.4%.  Too much supply at the end of the demand.

Commercial occupancy rates in central Texas will be at 71.32% on December 31, 2011.  Hey, I like my “home office.”

Foreclosure Predictions

1 out of every 3.1416 (or 31.83%) homes sold in 2011 in America will be a foreclosure sale.  So….

A new branch of the federal government will start up to assist in auctioning off foreclosures, akin to the RTC of the late 80s.  And there will be some of the worst junk food served at these auctions, so, BYOF (bring your own food).

Real Estate will continue to worsen.  42.2% of Americans with home mortgages will be upside down (market value of their homes exceed their mortgage balance) in 2011, it will be amazing how patient creditors will be trying not to flood the market with too much inventory at once.

Ironically, the number of Americans without any home mortgage, will rise.  In other words, Americans with cash will buy their homes out right.  Banks will be little or no help.

Crisis Predictions

In America, there will be no major oil spills, no category 5 hurricanes that hit America, no 7 point earthquakes, California mud slides will cease, and no major tsunamis world-wide.  Some minor flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys in late spring, and the usual forest fires out west in late summer, but not too serious.

Mostly only crises caused by Americans’ greed, fear and plain old stupidity, only to be greatly exacerbated by government intervention.  Obama’s approval rating will be as low as 31% due to his inability to understand our desire for capitalism, personal responsibility and freedom.  Americans will be both fed up with Obama and feel powerless to change the course of his socialism.  This frustration will explode in 2012 at the polls.

Political Predictions

House republicans will try rein in run-away government spending and to de-fund Obama-Care.  They will get mixed results, but the wound received from the bite of socialized medicine will not be able to be healed in 2011.  Sorry, this prognostication is not very measurable.  Who writes this stuff anyway:  “the bite of socialized medicine…”

And one for 2012:  Democrats will lose control of both houses, as well as the presidency.  But to whom…?  The Tea Party?

What do you think?

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My dad woke up one day and decided to make a Pro-Life music video. Little did I know the inescapable whirlwind his decision would produce.

More than 40 people worked for over two months to create what you can watch here. A Pro-Life video that I feel is a true representation of what really happens.

There are a few cameos by yours truly. My favorite is the coffee shop scene (1:45 in the video). In that scene you can see me in the background building the website the video is now embedded on. We almost broke the space time continuum I think

My dad, Tom Umstattd, wrote the song and played the guitars. The actors all came from the Austin Rhetoric Club. I tried out for the boyfriend but did not make the cut. The director, Alex Lerma, said I wasn’t be mean enough.

Our hope is that this video will re-energize the church to be actively pro-life. If it saves even one baby it will be a successes. The more it spreads the more impact it can have. Would you share  a link to the video on Facebook? Would you be willing to forward it to a friend?

What did you think when you first saw it? Was it what you were expecting? Leave a comment and let us know.

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This year the Umstattd Family has changed the way we do Christmas. It is changing everything.

The Old Way

With seven people in the Umstattd Family Christmas got a bit out of hand. We would spend all December shopping to fill up the whole living room floor with heaps of gifts.

With the notable exception of my father, we had become materialistic. The gifts not the Giver had become the focus of our Christmas day.

The Advent Conspiracy

Geno Hildebrandt, the pastor of our church, started talking about the advent conspiracy and that got us thinking.  Could we do Christmas differently this year?

If you are unaware of The Advent Conspiracy you need to read this post right now.

In short, with the money Americans spend on Christmas we could solve the clean water epidemic and probably world hunger as well.

The Umstattd Family Meeting

So, we held a meeting. In typical Umstattd fashion this meeting was done according to Roberts Rules of Order.  We submitted and voted on bills, seconded amendments and tried to keep the talking to no more than three people at a time.

I was surprised that the younger members of our family were fine with getting fewer gifts this year. We all agreed that Christmas for our family had become too much about stuff and not enough about people.

Random Christmas photo from 1999

My dad felt it important for the children to buy into the changes. So, we voted on and passed the following “Family Bills.”

• Family Bill 1 Each child is to give a gift to only one other child. (We drew names out of a hat) This passed unanimously 7/0
• Family Bill 2 Mom & Dad will only give one gift per child. Gift is defined by one wrapped gift. This does not apply to candy and other very small stocking stuffers. This passed 7/0
• Family Bill 3 Gift decisions are to be made through subversive investigation and not direct interrogation whenever possible. This passed 5/2
• Family Bill 4 Family members are encouraged to thoughtfully reduce materialism by making gifts and giving perviously owned gifts in many cases. (My mom is doing most of her shopping on Craig’s List this year)  This passed 7/0
• Family Bill 5 Each family member is encouraged to go on a fun December outing with each other family member. These outings are in addition to group outings. This passed  7/0

Believe it or not these changes were the hardest on my mom. Gifts are one of her love languages and while shopping is a stress she enjoys it as a labor of love.  One thing we did not address in the family meeting was what to do with the money we were saving on gifts. One idea is to donate it to the Austin Coalition for Life but we have not yet decided.

The Results

Christmas hasn’t happened yet but here are the results so far.

• Less stress. Many of us are already done with our shopping because we have less to do.
• More time. We’ve made more Christmas cookies this year and my mom was able to clean out the ornaments which she has wanted to do for years. Also we are in the process of making a music video and finishing an audiobook (more on this later).
• More outings. David is still out of town but we are already doing more fun activities as a family that we wouldn’t have had time to do if we had been shopping.

Perhaps I will update this post and let you know how Christmas day went.

We Like Gifts

I don’t want to sound like a grinch who hates gifts. We just think it has gotten out of hand. Christmas is not about gifts. That is the lesson the Grinch learned, come to think about it.

The Ninja does not like holiday greed.

I had to share this video. Its about Ninjas and black Friday.

What do you think? How are you doing Christmas this year? Are you changing anything?

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It has now been almost three weeks since my dad’s heart operation. He just seems a lot healthier now that his heart is getting 25% more blood. But, I can tell he doesn’t have as much steam as he used to before the heart attack. I have spent a lot of time at home these last few weeks and my parents are both feeling better overall. But I can tell they are not as young as they used to be. Parenting young children is not as easy at age 51 as it was at age 30.

My dad has orders from his doctors to take it easy and reduce his amount of stress. Not easy for a soccer coach, basketball coach, debate coach, manager of multiple companies, CPA, real estate investor, husband, father of five and son of an elderly mother. Compounding his stress is the fact that our house is in the middle of a renovation that stalled shortly after his surgery. We have been without a kitchen table for almost two months now.

I am just now beginning to appreciate what an amazing father I have. I never realized how much he did for my family and for others because he never complained about it. In fact the only thing I have heard him complain about is his ongoing lawsuit with AT&T.

It is hard for my dad to cut back. If I were in his position I would see the need to "take it easy" as an affront to my masculinity. Avoiding work is for old women. I feel that work is part of our identity as men. But as we age our work transitions from labor to supervision and advise. This transition is being forced on my dad.

Another challenge is conflicting medical advice. One the one side are rude medical doctors who advocate chemical solutions to medical problems.  On the other are naturopaths who advocate cleansing the body of toxins and helping it heal itself. These schools of thought are mutually exclusive. Who’s right? Only God knows.

I now have another reason to visit my home in Austin. I used to go because I didn’t want to miss out on my brothers growing into men. But now, I value my time with my parents because I don’t know how much time with them I have left. Maybe a year maybe thirty. Only God knows. Either way it is a sobering thought.

Overall, God has showed us his soverengty, provision and mercy throughout this whole situation. This has been a tough season for me for multiple reasons. But, God has recently given me peace again. I have been convinced that I can handle anything with God and nothing without Him. Thanks again for your prayer and support. I thank God for you all.

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As a child I thought of my parents as infallible and immortal. I remember the first time I saw my mom drop something in the kitchen. I was shocked. Moms don’t drop wet plates! Dad’s don’t get heart attacks! But they do. They unfortunately do.

Well, we found out on Monday that my dad had a heart attack. I realized at that time how much and how often I take my dad for granted. I learned in my car accident that life is fleeting.

Here is an excerpt from a mom’s email: Tom had a hiatal hernia attack on July 11th, that had many similar symptoms as a heart attack, but wasn’t one. He continued to feel really lousy for a couple of weeks after that. He recently had an EKG to check his heart, and it indicates that at some time AFTER July 11th, Tom did have a heart attack, which resulted in damage to the upper two chambers of his heart. He is going into the Heart Hospital Thursday Aug 7 for a Cardiac Catheterization, where they will explore the arteries of the heart and assess and fix any damage they find.

The doctors say that this is a routine operation and that even though the mortality rate is one in ten my dad’s chances are much better since he is young.

This has been a hard week for my family.

• William got a 102 degree fever
• John is recovering from his own surgery
• My Mom has Migraines
• My Dad just had a heart attack.

Updates

• Thursday 11:26am My dad is about to go in for his operation.
• Thursday 1:46pm My Dad has now gone in for his operation in good spirits.
• Thursday 3:01pm The doctors found some blockages and will operate. My dad will need to stay in the hospital overnight.
• Thursday 3:30pm My dad received two stints. One for a major artery that was 100% blocked and one for a diagonal artery. His heart made its own bypass so there is no significant damage there. His blood pressure is now a lot lower than it was before the operation. He does not need open heart surgery praise God! He is going to need to take a blood thinner for about a year though.
• Thursday 7:38pm We were able to speak with the doctor and get the prognosis. My dad had a mild to moderate heart attack. My dad has damage in other parts of his heart that were not bad enough for a stint. He is now sleeping in his hospital room. My mom is exhausted and trying to rest. It sounds like my dad will be pretty restricted for the next several days.
• Friday 10:05am My dad is feeling much better this morning. He says that he can feel more blood going through his heart and they think he will be able to go home today. It turns out that 25% of the blood flow to my dad’s heart had been blocked.
• Wednesday 10:09am My Dad got back home on Friday and wants everyone to know how thankful he is for your prayers and encouragement. He has never been so prayed for in his life and he is honored by all of you.

Check back here for live updates on his status.

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