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God’s Term Limits

Shaman

Hamatsa ritualist, 1914 (source: wikipedia)

Here is a man who was once influential in his community. This man is now gone, along with every other member of his generation. This photo made me think of our political leaders.

Do you know what God’s temporary solution to human depravity was? Term limits.

“Then the Lord said, ‘My Spirit will not put up with humans for such a long time, for they are only mortal flesh. In the future, their normal lifespan will be no more than 120 years.’” Genesis 6:3.

Sin Was Too Strong

In the ancient world, Adam lived over 900 years, and yet he was unable to stem the tide of wickedness around him. If the ancients would have listened to anyone, it would have been to their father who had walked with God. Yet they turned from the teaching of Adam to their doom.

When humans lived for 800+ years, the wicked got into power and stayed there. This created a feedback loop so powerful that after just 2,000 years, there was only one righteous man left on the entire planet. The corrupting force of sin was too strong for human nature to withstand and God had to start over with the human race.

God phased in his term limits as each generation died sooner than the one before, till no one was left who lived longer than 120 years. With these life limits in place, human depravity is held at least partly in check. We are no more evil than our ancestors 3,000 years ago. Our sins may be different, but we are also no better than our murderous ancestors.

800 Years of King Saul

Would it have been nice to have King David reign for 800 years? Probably. But we would have had to go through 800 years of Saul first, which Israel would not have survived. Also, sin started to work on David as he grew in power. This is the fundamental problem with power.

Sin slowly ate away at David until this “man after God’s own heart” eventually used his power for murder. If David had reigned for 800 years, he may have become a monster. Death may be an act of mercy as God allows us to pass into eternity before we become beasts.

The Only Way To Handle Temptation

The only way to overcome temptation is to flee. George Washington set the example by walking away from power before it ruined him. The wise can see the trap of power and avoid it.  So, over time, the halls of power fill with fools and villains who can’t or won’t flee the temptation of power.

These are just some thoughts I had after viewing that 100-year-old image on Wikipedia. What do you think?

Tweetables:

  • “We need term limits to remove the villains and to keep the fools from falling into villainy.” Click to Tweet!
  • “Politics attracts fools who can’t see the temptation of power & villains who embrace it.” Click to Tweet!
  • “The only way to overcome the temptation of power is to abdicate.” Click to Tweet!

What do you think?

  • Do you agree?
  • Are term limits a good idea?
  • How can we best create a system that limits human depravity in the halls of power?
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May 2012 Voter Guide

Please Vote

For those of you who have followed this blog for some time you know I normally post a republican primary voter guide. This year I have been so swamped with launching the Bestseller Society, that I have not had a chance to put one together. Fortunately my dad, Tom Umstattd, bailed me out and published his list of who he is voting for. I’m voted for the same folks so it works out. These are not “endorsements” so if you are a candidate please don’t put Tom Umstattd as an endorser on your website.

If you are curious about my voting philosophy see this post.

Tom Umstattd Sr’s Picks

This is how Tom Umstattd early voted in the Republican primary; regular voting day is on May 29th, 2012.  Voting early, the polls are open until 6pm Friday.  To find your voting location visit http://www.co.travis.tx.us/county_clerk/election/default.asp or call 512.854.4996

Big Names

  • President             — Ron Paul (in the primary vote your conscience, in the general election, hold your nose and vote.  Rick Perry is not on the ballot)
  • US Senator          — Ted Cruz, THSC agrees (TAL endorses David Dewhurst, some think Glen Addison is ok, but stick with Cruz)
  • Congress Dist 10 — Michael McCaul (incumbent) also endorsed by TAL; Eddie Traylor seems interesting, too.
  • RailRoad Comm.   — Warren Chisum (TAL & HSLDA agrees)
  • RailRoad Comm.   — Barry Smitherman (TAL & HSLDA agrees) (running unopposed)

Judges

  • Place 2, Spm Crt  — Don Willett, also endorsed by HSLDA & TAL  (but Steve Smith is endorsed by Don Zimmerman)
  • Place 4, Spm Crt  — David Medina, also endorsed by TAL & Former SC Judge Scott Brister
  • Place 6, Spm Crt  –  Nathan Hecht, also endorsed by TAL  (running unopposed)
  • Presiding Judge, Court of Criminal Appeals — Sharon Keller (R) (running unopposed)
  • Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals, Place 2 — Jeff Rose (R) (running unopposed)
  • Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals, Place 3 — Scott Field (R)
  • Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals, Place 5 — David Puryear (R) (running unopposed)
  • Justice, 3rd Court of Appeals, Place 6 — Bob Pemberton (R) (running unopposed)

Misc

  • County Republican Chairman — Rosemary Edwards (R) (running unopposed)
  • Dist. 5   SBOE     — Ken Mercer (THSC agrees)
  • Dist. 10 SBOE    — Jeff Fleece
  • Dist. 25 State Sen — Donna Cambell
  • Dist. 47 State Rep – Paul Workman
  • Pct. 3 County Comm — Gerald Daugherty (Jim Strickland is also ok)
  • Pct. 2 Constable   — Al Herrera, although I am told both are fine, I like the Hispanic sir name, need more of those in the GOP (like Nathan Macias)
  • Pct. 3 Constable   — Mike Varela, same reason as above
  • Williamson County Attorney:  Doyle “Dee” Hobbs

GOP Propositions

1.    School Choice.  FOR, although I am against the state funding education, I like having the choice, and I think home schooling is considered a private school, per Leaper vs. Arlington, ISD case.  Actual wording:  “The state should fund education by allowing dollars to follow the child instead of the bureaucracy, through a program which allows parents the freedom to choose their child’s school, public or private, while also saving significant taxpayer dollars.”

2.   Repealing Obamacare.  FOR  Actual wording:  “Congress should immediately repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (otherwise known as Obamacare) and reject the rationing of healthcare by government or the intrusion by the government into the doctor – patient relationship.”  Now that we have passed it, we know what is in it.  Personally, I can find nothing worth saving in it.  Let’s start over from scratch, or better yet, this is not what the federal government should be about, anyway, but the state and local governments.

3.   Public Prayer.  FOR  Actual wording:  “Government should be prohibited from restricting the content of public prayer.”  I like prohibiting the government.

4.   Balanced Budget/Controlling Government Growth, enthusiastically FOR.  Actual wording:  “Out of control spending should be stopped at all levels of federal and state government through constitutional amendments limiting any increase in government spending to be the combined increase of population and inflation, requiring voter approval.”  This idea has been around for a while, but has not been made into law for some reason.  It is a no nonsense growth plan, and as an accountant, I think it makes sense to me.  We must rein in our runaway government spending!

5.   Redistricting  AGAINST.  Enough already!  It seems to me that the state government has better things to do with its limited time & I feel the proposition is too broad:  “remedy inequities.”  And the courts may merely overturn this future redistricting plan, again.  We will do it again in 2020.  Actual wording:  “The Texas Legislature should redraw the court-imposed lines for Congress and State legislative districts in its upcoming session in order to remedy inequities.”

Here are some others not in my district:

  • Congress Dist 17 – Bill Flores or perhaps George Hindman
  • Congress Dist 21 – Richard Morgan (THSC
  • Congress Dist 25 – Dave Garrison or Wes Riddle
  • Congress Dist 35 – Susan Narvaiz or perhaps Rob Roark

Feel free to print this out and take it with you to the polls.

Other Voter Guides

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Wrong Assumption #4 – The Military Can Stop Transnational Terrorists

This is part 4 in a series of posts about foreign policy.

Our military is designed to destroy foreign governments and defeat foreign armies.

Give our generals a nation in the world and they can crush that government in two months or less. The U.S. military is a powerful and blunt weapon. But, no military has the precision to go into a city and only kill the terrorists. Terrorists will either slip through the cracks or everyone will die.

A military can temporarily stabilize a region but that stability fails as soon as the military leaves. The insurgeants may leave for a time or lay low, but they will be back when the troops leave. Borders stop soldiors much better than they stop terrorists.

Espionnage is the Key

An army of spies would be much more effective at the delicate work of fighting transnational terrorist organizations. Only espionage has the surgical precision needed to fight non governmental actors such as Al Qaeda.

The man we need to fight terrorism is James Bond, not Rambo.

Trying to stop Islamic terrorism with the military is like trying to do open heart surgery with a chainsaw.

 

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Responding to SOPA Supporters

I have been dialoging with some friends who work with Chairman Lamar Smith about SOPA. I would like to share with you some of my thoughts on SOPA and respond to some of their concerns.

If you don’t know what SOPA is this video is a pretty good introduction.

Claim: SOPA only targets foreign websites.

The “inter” part is what makes the internet work. Congress has no idea how DNS servers work or what the technological ramifications of their law would be. Also, what makes a website foreign? My company Castle Media Group has servers all over the world.

SOPA does a lot more than block access to foreign sites. It is part of a very troubling series of laws. The way to stop piracy needs a more nuanced approach. Yet again Congress is trying to do open heart surgery with a chain saw.

Claim: SOPA won’t harm the internet.

I challenge SOPA supporters to find a single founder of the internet who backs this bill. As far as I know, the wizards of the internet reject SOPA to a man. In fact I challenge SOPA supporters to find one person who supports this bill who can accurately articulate what a DNS server is and how the DNS system works. The “Phone book for the web” definition the press uses is unclear and misleading.

Claim: SOPA will reduce online piracy.

SOPA has no solvency. Messing with DNS servers will do nothing to block unique IPs from sending data back and forth. So the result will be an encrypted, underground black market as full of pirated goods as the status quo. If this bill is passed, there would be technological workarounds in place before the bill even took effect. But the harms would persists for decades. Trying to get content off the internet with laws is like trying to get pee out of a pool with a net.

The harms of SOPA are huge. Laws regarding technology inhibit inovation since the laws persist long after the technological landscape has changed. If this bill was harmless, why would so many websites be protesting it?

Claim: 43 “digital piracy” sites generate an estimated 53 billion hits annually.

Be careful anytime anyone uses the phrase “hits” to talk about how much web traffic. A hit is a single server request be it a file, style sheet, a database query, a script, or an image. It is not uncommon for a single page view to generate dozens of hits and for a single website visitor to generate hundreds if not thousands of hits. I would estimate that every minute you spend on Facebook, Facebook gets 250 “hits.” Hits correlate to traffic about as much as RPM correlates with MPH in your car.

A much more valid metric is “page views” or “unique visitors.”

Claim: Online piracy costs America 200 billion dollars and thousands of jobs.

The number about lost revenue is misleading. First it may be based on bad information in the first place. If the estimators are using “hits” as a way of estimating traffic to pirated sites then their conclusions are based on faulty premises. The number is likely made up and not based on any sort of empirical research.

Secondly, the estimators fail to take into account the elasticity of prices. When a commodity is cheaper, people tend to consume more of that thing. Some commodities are more elastic than others. Energy is very inelastic. Entertainment is very elastic. So when entertainment is free, people consume a lot of that entertainment. You probably listen to more Pandora or FM Radio than songs you’ve purchased on iTunes for instance.

The higher prices are the more discriminating people become. Some movies you will wait to rent because you don’t think they are worth the price of a movie ticket, for example.

So to assume that if we could snap our fingers and remove all piracy that people would start paying for all the pirated content the currently consume is false. The money the industry claims to loose are based on growth rates that are completely unrealistic. $200 billion dollars? Really? The entire music industry is only a 20-30 billion dollar industry and the movie industry is not much bigger. There is no way they could have grown that big that fast in a piracy free world. Where on earth do they expect those 100 billion dollars to come from? Would consumers suddenly have more money to spend or would they just consume less media?

The Solution: Fewer Laws & More Innovation

The solution to piracy is technological not legal. Laws lack the flexibility needed to be effective. The Congress chases technology like a two year old child chases a squirrel. Technology adapts too quickly for the laws to do anything but harm law abiding citizens. The most effective enemy to Napster was the Apple iTunes store. Suing Napster (Which did not require SOPA by the way) did nothing the curb piracy. But the iTunes store makes buying legal content so easy that saving $0.99 to pirate a song is not worth the effort. I can listen to a song playing in a coffee shop, use an app to identify that song and then buy it all within three minutes and all on my iPhone.

This sort of inovation is why the music industry just announced growth in sales for the first time since 2004. The movie industry will see similar growth as they embrace “movies as an experience” and make it easier to legally rent internet movies on your TV. If Hollywood put half as much effort into usability as they put into lobbying, we would see a dramatic increase in sales and a decline in piracy. They need to make renting an online movie through your TV easy enough for my grandmother to do it.

Responding to technology should be like our response to speech. The answer to wrong speech is more speech not censorship. The answer to the wrong use of technology is more technology not regulation.

Nerds created the internet, the nerds can manage it. Congressmen should not regulate what they do not understand.

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Wrong Assumption #3 Bullets Can Stop Radical Islam

This is part 3 in a series of posts about foreign policy.

Many conservatives have religions motivations behind their foreign policy. They look at the violence advocated in the Koran and realize that, when interpreted literally, Islam is a violent religion. They then propose as a solution that we kill the Islamic Extremists before they can kill us. This kind of thinking is amplified by those who think we should “just nuke the whole desert and be done with the danger.”

This thinking lowers us to their level. It is also based on wrong assumptions, since bullets don’t stop ideas or religions.

The only way to stop ideas is with other ideas.

History teaches us that when you persecute something you legitimize and promote it. The tighter we squeeze the middle east, the more countries will slip through our fingers. If it didn’t work for Darth Vader it won’t work for us.

We would have done much better to send an army of missionaries to share the hope of the Gospel than to send an army of troops to shoot at their ideas. We will content to struggle to have moral legitimacy to share the Gospel of Peace when we are shooting at our mission field.

Trying to stop a religion with bullets is like trying to put out a fire out with gasoline. I didn’t work for Caesar, it won’t work for us.

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Wrong Assumption #2 – Limited Number of Terrorists

I think President Bush believed that there are a fixed number of terrorists in this world. He stated as much in one of his speeches when he said it was better to fight them over there with soldiers than it is to fight them here with firemen and rescue workers. In that every terrorist that we kill makes for one less terrorist in the world.

While I admire Bush’s rhetoric, I question his reasoning. Imagine, for a moment the repercussions when we kill a terrorist in Afghanistan. His siblings have lost a brother, his parents have lost a child and his children have lost their father. Yes, Muslims have feelings too. Do you think any of those family members might be moved to revenge the death of their beloved father/brother/friend?

If you follow Middle Eastern history for any period of time you will see a region continually stuck in cycles of revenge and retribution that go back for centuries. Getting caught into this cycle of retaliation is not a good foreign policy.

In addition to the terrorist motivated by revenge, New terrorists are born every day. Some, children in some Muslim countries are encouraged from birth to become terrorists. They strap on bomb vests the same way America children wear Spiderman pajamas. Except, American kids don’t grow up to be Spiderman.

Sending troops into Afghanistan to kill terrorists is like sending exterminators into Minnesota to swat summer mosquitoes. They may kill many bugs but will have made no measurable change to the overall number of bugs.

Now imagine for a moment that instead of mosquitoes those bugs were bees and we were repeatedly stabbing their nests with a stick. How does that make us safer?

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Why Those Who Oppose Ron Paul’s Foreign Policy are Wrong

Lately I have been listening to people raise various objections Ron Paul’s foreign policy. Many of these arguments are based on fear, ignorance, and flawed assumptions.

My goal is not to convince you to vote for Ron Paul. I’m sure your mind is already made up. My goal is to inform your views about our Foreign Policy. I have studied history and foreign affairs intensely over the last few years and have become convinced that our current foreign policy is dangerous and evil. Name any country in the world and I can give you an update on what is going on in that region and perhaps even the country itself.

I would like to address these flawed assumptions over the coming days. The first flawed assumption is that giving money to tyrants makes the world safer for US.

Wrong Assumption #1 Giving Foreign Aid Promotes US Regional Interests

Foreign Aid means giving money, food and guns to the leaders of other nations. They then sometimes use this money to rape their people to feed their soldiers. The money is supposed to help the poor. But, the problem with tyrants is that they are evil, and evil men don’t feed the poor even when you pay them to.

We gave or continue to give aid to the following regimes:

  • Mubarak Regime (Egypt)
  • Hussein Regime (Iraq)
  • Taliban Regime (Afghanistan)
  • Putin Regime (Russia)
  • Gillani Regime (Pakistan)
  • Wolde-Giorgis Regime (Ethiopia)
  • Chavez Regime (Venezuela)
  • Castro Regime (Cuba)
  • Palestinian Authority Regime (Gaza Strip)
  • Gaddafi Regime (Libya)
  • The list goes on and on.

The shorter list is the tyrants we don’t aid. To my knowledge is Kim Jong il and Kim Jong-un of North Korea.

What is so sad about this list is that we have ended up going to war with most of these tyrants anyway.

I am convinced that Foreign Aid is evil and one of the biggest reasons that the third world stays poor. If you read the Old Testament, you learn that the poor stay poor not because they lack money. They stay poor because they lack justice. When we give food, guns and cash to tyrants we promote the very injustice that hurts the poor. Also, when food does make it to the people it puts local farmers out of work since they can’t compete with free food. Oh, and foreign aid is bankrupting our economy. Socialism is bad, very very bad.

Borrowing money from China to then give aid to tyrants is like borrowing cash from a loan shark to hire a drug dealer to shoot the homeless.

Ron Paul is the only candidate who opposes to Foreign Aid based on principle. The other candidates like aid but don’t think we can afford it right now.  Congressman Paul’s plan to cut 100% of foreign aid will help US and will promote justice around the world. It will also help Israel since we give seven times more money to Israel’s enemies than we give to Israel. Israel doesn’t need our money, Israel just found a huge oil reserve that has them set for years. More on Israel to come.

What do you think? Is foreign aid ever justified? Tomorrow we will discuss whether the number of terrorists is fixed or variable.

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12 Predictions for 2012

Predicting the future is not rocket surgery. It just involves watching cycles & trends. The problem is there is no way to account for anomalies which makes failure easy to excuse. Here are 12 things I see happening in 2012.

Previous Predictions:

Political Predictions

1 Romney to win Republican Nomination after Brokered Convention

Republicans will show yet again their willingness to vote for “electablity” and hair over brains and principles.  Republican voters are lemmings following the main stream media. The reason you don’t hear about how popular Ron Paul is amongst independent voters is because they don’t want you to hear that.

2 Popular Third Party (Tea Party?) Candidate to Run for US President

If Romney wins the primary he is going to draw a Tea Party opponent in addition to Obama. Look for the third party candidate to come in from the right not the left.

3 Obama to Win Reelection

American’s are going to remember why the love Obama and why they dislike republican corruption. I just can’t see them electing Romney.

4 Republicans Regain control of Congress

The GOP will regain control of congress although by a slimmer margin than they currently enjoy.

Sports Predictions

5 UT to win BCS Bowl Game

UT is going to transform from a defensive powerhouse to an offensive powerhouse. They are going to teach Davis how to catch the ball and teach Shipley how to get open.  The will also have a non freshman Quarterback who knows how to move the ball down the field.

6 Aggies to Get Spanked in SEC

I predict A&M will win no more than 3 SEC games all year. I will not be surprised if they loose every conference game they play.

Technology Predictions

7 Attacks + Outages + Regulation will create worst year for the Internet in the history of the internet.

The internet will be attacked on all sides in 2012. Congress will regulate it. Hackers will break it in specific areas for specific periods of time. A huge virus attack will break out making headlines and costing businesses billions.

If you want to save the internet of tomorrow fight SOPA today. Piracy is a problem but SOPA is not the answer.

8 2011 Will Be the Year of Facebook Advertising

I predict that expenditures on FB ads will double from 2011. Authors, politicians and small businesses will get in on the game like never before. The first movers are already making a killing. Umstattd Media does Facebook advertising if you would like to give them a try for your company.

9 Facebook IPO

Facebook will issue a public offering and I will probably buy in on it.

10 Debut of an Apple TV

Apple will finally announce a real TV that will be amazing and expensive. It will also be so easy to use my 80 year old grandmother will want one.

Economic Predictions

11 US Economy to End Up in 2012

The chaos in Europe and the typical election year Fed shenanigans will cause the stock market to end higher than it did in 2011. I see this helping facilitate Obama’s reelection. If I miss this one I will like miss the one about Obama getting reelected.

Also I predict that while the economy will only make modest gains the press will go crazy and make the improvements look much better than they really are. This will spur additional growth that will struggle to sustain itself after the election.

12 Netflix to finish the year above $100 per share

Right now Netflix is trading around $70 a share.  Despite their recent goofs the fundamentals of the company are strong. Plus, they are still way cheaper than cable. Subscribers who quit in protest will come back.  This year they will be investing in South America and Europe and by the end of 2012 investors will see that Netflix has a bright future ahead of it. This is all assuming they can survive all the take over attempts between now and then. I’ve put my money where my mouth is on this one. I’ve sold my Apple stock for Netflix stock

Publishing Predictions

I have 2012 publishing industry predictions that you can find at the Author Media Blog we also interviewed nearly a dozen industry experts and got their predictions as well.

Bonus Prediction

The world will not end. Jesus will not come back. 

The more I study history the more I feel like we live in a fairly boring time all things considered. Our fear does not match with reality.  The wars are not very big, the famines not that deadly, the epidemics not as widespread compared with how they have been in the past. Even our recession is nothing compared with recessions of the past. If we were closer to the end of the world I would expect the world to go out with more of a bang.

Also we need to give Israel its sovereignty. Are they really a sovereign nation when they have to get permission from Bush or Obama to defend themselves?  Ron Paul is the only candidate who wants to give 100% sovereignty to Israel and to stop giving money to her enemies.

Tom Umsatttd’s (My Dad) Predictions

For my more measurable 2012 predictions.

1.       Presidency.  The republican (GOP) presidential candidate will remain be dubious, until around June, maybe an un-suspension of “9-9-9?”  Here are the scenarios as I see them.

Presidential Electoral Votes by Party for 2012

Scenario                                                  Democrats           Republicans           Other

Any GOP candidate besides Romney      235                                300                              0

If Dr. Paul is the GOP candidate*            135                                 400*                           0

If Romney is the GOP candidate**           235**                             125                          175

*  If Dr. Paul wins the GOP candidacy, the GOP will reform more towards actually following the US Constitution.  There will also be an increase of impeachment of federal judges in 2013, maybe even a supreme court justice!

**  If Mitt Romney becomes the GOP candidate, President Obama will win re-election with 235 votes, and, the GOP will cease to be a viable political party by 2014, obliging massive GOP defections to the more conservative party during the next 3 years.  No matter what happens, I see a bright future for America, especially after 2014, with a more conservative political party of some type to more effectively rival the liberals and socialists.

2.       Democrats will continue a minority in the House, and barely lose control of the US Senate in 2012, no matter who becomes president.

3.       Football.  University of Texas (whose record was 8-5 in 2010, and 5-7 in 2009) will win at least 9 games in the 2012 football season.  Bonus prediction:  A&M will win less than 5 games against SEC teams, probably closer to 2.

4.       RG III  Robert Griffin, III, Baylor’s Heisman Trophy winning quarter back, will go pro L.

5.       Baylor will continue to dominate in sports with its 19 teams, being 1 of the top 2 most successful universities in athletics in the Big 12.  (I hope this is a measurable fact.)

6.       Gold will be near or below $1000 per ounce by the end of 2012.

7.       Energy.  Crude oil will be volatile, but will end up around $105 per barrel.  Gasoline will too, but with not so much volatility, ending the year around $3.20 per gallon.

8.       War.  Occasional short-lived riots, and changes of regimes will continue in the middle east.  But with the US leaving Iraq, there will be a general cooling of hostilities.

9.       Europe will be a worldwide disappointment.  The euro will be weak, another European country, maybe 2, will have massive financial troubles, as they continue their liberal, Keynesian agendas toward economic decline.

10.   Real Estate foreclosures.  Even though the Obama administration will make every attempt to make itself look good, foreclosures and distressed sales of residential real estate (as well as the recession) will continue.  He will actually have some success in the summer, mainly from his friends in finance holding back from foreclosures until after the elections.  This graph will look like a “V” with a larger right side.  The National Association of Realtor’s report will state that foreclosures and short sales (typically sold at deep discounts) will be high at the beginning of 2012 (perhaps peaking around 33%, lower in the summer and fall (perhaps in the low 20s), but then after reporting concludes, before the elections, they will rise to 30-40% of all sales.

11.   Crisis Predictions.  Fukushima will continue to be a mostly ignored, major problem.  There will be no earth quakes over 9, but over 300 earth quakes under 7 all over the Pacific rim.  There will be 3 category 4 hurricanes, and       1 cat 5, but the later will decrease to a 3 when it hits the continent.  We will have the usual flooding in the Mississippi/Missouri/Ohio valleys, fires in the west and southwest, and a rather & snowy cold winter in the NE and Midwest.  The summer will be another hot one for Texas with 30 days over 100 degrees, and less than average rainfall from March to October.

12.   Netflix closed the year at $69.29 per share, will be valued over $150 per share by the end of 2012.  Too convenient, too inexpensive compared to going to the movies.  The recent bad news is not significant to hold the price down.

 

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Goodbye 2011

It is that time again. Time to l0ok back on 2011 and summarize what I’ve been up to all year in 1000 words or less. But first lets score my 2011 predictions.

Scoring the 2011 Predictions

Prediction 1: New iPad With Camera

Got it, bought it, love it.
1 point.

Prediction 2: Real Estate Market to Crash in Austin

The prices in Austin droped by more than 15% as I predicted. The prices in some neighborhoods have dropped by as much as 200%. I know an investor who just bought a 3/2 foreclosure for $30,000 in South Austin.
1 point
Prediction 3: Voter ID Bill Will Pass This Year

I still can’t believe we failed to pass the voter ID bill this year. I want to give my self a point for this just for my denial. (Editors note: I have been corrected on Facebook. The Voter ID did pass after all. It is just being challenged in the courts which was to be expected )
1 points

Prediction 4: iPhone will come out on Verizon.

Hell froze over and this actually happened. No more are iPhone users tied to just one bad carrier. Now we have three bad carriers to choose from :-)
1 point

Prediction 5: Sarah Palin will announce a bid for presidency.

No Palin run No Points for me
0 points

Prediction 6: Global Famine

Global food prices soured to all time highs in February and then started to taper off by the end of year. I’m going to give myself half a point for this one.
0.5 Points

Prediction 7: UT Make it to a Bowl Game

Yes we did, and we won that bowl game too 21 to 10.
1 points

Prediction 8: US Inflation to Rise to 5% or above

Current government numbers, if you believe them, have inflation at 3.4%. This number comes from the consumer price index. If you measure the dollar against Gold then inflation is indeed above 5%. Should I get a point for this? I say no.
0 points.

Prediction 9: An Umstattd Book will be published.

The one prediction I could control and I failed to deliver the goods. My brother David decided to write a 4th book instead of finishing his first one. His books are amazing but right now you have to be an Umstattd or a girlfriend to read them.
0 points

Prediction 10: Unemployment to Remain High
Last year I predict the rate would only fall to 8.5% according to our current numbers for November the unemployment rate dropped to 8.6%.  The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been lowering the unemployment rate by saying people are giving up looking for work. So hopelessness not job creation is lowing this number.
1 Point.

Prediction 11: 5,000 Saved Through 40 Days for Life

40 days for life reports that 5045 lives have been saved.  And those are just the ones we know about. I am very happy to give myself a point for this prediction and to applaud all of you who have spent time praying out in front of abortion clinics. It really makes a difference.
1 Point

Total score 7.5 out of 11

My First Sermon

I gave my first legit Sunday Morning sermon in back in January of 2011. You and listen to it here. It was on what is normally called “low attendance Sunday” because of a leadership retreat that 30% of the church attended. But so many of you came out to hear me that filled Hope Chapel. Thank you.

My Political Activities

I have done a pretty good job staying out of politics this year despite being very frustrated with the incompetence in Washington amongst republicans. My only political action to speak of was to coach students at Patriot Academy and to donate money to Ron Paul which I recommend you do as well. Every dollar you give Ron Paul advances his ideas which is exactly what this country needs: The truth.

2011 Reading

I read 69 books in 2011.   Some of my favorites were:

  1. Steve Jobs
  2. Hunger Games
  3. EntreLeadership by Dave Ramsey
  4. Delivering Happiness
  5. The Facebook Effect
  6. Guns Germs and Steel
  7. The Black Swan
  8. The Science of Fear
  9. The Eye of the World
  10. Me Myself & Bob

You can see the full list on my Goodreads profile along with my reviews and ratings.

Castle Media Group LLC

In July I launched a new company named Castle Media Group LLC. It is a web marketing holding company that currently employes 10 people. Castle Media Group has the following subsidiaries.

Author Media

Author Media does web design and development for authors. It is also the new home for the Author Tech Tips blog. We help authors attract publishers, sell books and win more speaking gigs.

Umstattd Media

This is our web design for small businesses brand. I had plans to cancel Umstattd Media but the name ID, domain authority and referral base were just too high to turn away. At some point in the future we will launch a brand for small businesses that is easier to spell.

Webroots Media

Webroots Media designs websites for political organizations. Our goal is to do for other conservative candidates and organizations what we did for Rick Green. Webroots Media does more than just websites it is full service online marketing arm helping campaigns with Facebok Advertising, Search Engine Optimization, Email Marketing and more.

Blue Dove Designs

Blue Dove Designs is our first acquisition. We purchased this company from Jim Camomile in December or 2011.  Jim is now apart of our team and helping us launch some exciting new products for 2012.

Summary of 2011

That is a quick summary of some of what I’ve been up to. I’m sorry I have not updated this blog more frequently. Many of you have chastised me for not posting here and on Practical Courtship. All I can say is that running a business is a lot of work and this blog has had to take a back seat. On the plus side I have some exciting new year predictions coming out tomorrow. So stay tuned.

 

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The Mysterious Woman


Back in January, I gave my first Sunday sermon at Hope Chapel. Many of you came out to hear my “first real sermon” and I really appreciate your support. Even though that was the Sunday all the church leaders were out on a retreat, the sanctuary was full. Thank you.

The sermon was about the most mysterious woman in the old testament. We don’t even know her name but she wrote one of the most famous passages in the Bible. Curious? You will have to listen to the sermon to find out who she was. Or read Jim Davis’ notes below.

The first service I completely fell on my face technologically. I forgot my VGA adapter and even when someone in the congregation had one the projector completely failed to work. I have never in my life had a technical failure so catastrophic in front of so many people. The sound guy gracefully cut the first few frantic minutes of the sermon from the recording.

Listen/Watch

Here are the notes put together by Jim Davis. He created the notes for small group discussion.

Lesson

Satan intends to kill the current generation of God’s people and destroy the mission God has given them, but God heals and protects His children.

Text(s)/Resources

  • Proverbs 31:1-9, Matthew 28:19-20, and Psalms 139
  • AlmightyMusicVideo.com

Ice-Breaker:

  1. Have you experienced an interest/hobby consuming large amounts of your time? Dominating your interests and thinking?
  2. Have you felt an “adventure-shaped” hole in your heart, your thinking? Do you long for a more interesting/exciting life?

Background:

Proverbs 31 is famous for its description of a competent woman, but the first 9 verses are the words of a mysterious (unnamed) woman, the mother of King Lemuel. She speaks to her son, who is (or will be) a king. Notice that she has advice, feedback for him, but she speaks from the perspective of her listener. She speaks to his identify, before she speaks about what she thinks he should do. Rather than admonishing him to avoid a failure she anticipates, she speaks to his identify and encourages him to live up to the level of who he is.

Satan is the opposite. He would have his hearers forget who they are: children of God Almighty. Rather than encourage, Satan seeks to steal, kill and destroy.

Point 1 of 3: Steal. Thomas shared that as a child he loved computer games. They consumed his interests and time. Near the time he was finishing high school, an older brother (Lester Haines) spoke a word to him: “It is time for you to be about your Father’s business.” Thomas knew (though perhaps Lester did not) that his life was oriented in large degree around gaming, to near-addictive levels. The addition to activities can be very similar to drug and other addictions. So Thomas understood God to be telling him to  give up gaming.

Thomas further understood that he wanted adventure and that gaming attempted to fill the “adventure-shaped” hole in his heart. Soon after this word was given him, Thomas began to experience the adventure of evangelism. Sharing the gospel with others was scary. But riding a roller coaster is scary. That is why one rides them. The scariness is an adventure, the ride is exhilarating. The enemy would steal true adventure from us. Don’t let him.

Point 2 of 3: Kill. The mysterious woman of Proverbs 31:1-9 told her son to avoid drinking, a metaphor for forgetting one’s role. She told him to live up to the levels required/expected of a king and to protect and speak for those who are helpless. Today, the mute and helpless are the unborn. 1 in 3 Christian woman have an abortion. These women are much more likely to suffer psychological disorders later and experience shame, guilt, and brokenness because they are unable to seek forgiveness and healing.  Babies are killed and mother’s souls are grievously wounded.

Point 3 of 3: Destroy our mission. God intends this generation to make a difference, to carry out His purposes. To take actions and/or speak out. Failure to do so results from apathy. Apathy means “hard heart.” In this generation there is a word “meh.” Meh can be defined as a verbal shrugging of the shoulders and it is growing more widespread. At a time when we should be embracing the mission of going into the entire earth to share good news, the enemy promotes the response of meh — because he wants to destroy this generation’s mission.

Digging Deeper:

  • What has been stolen from you? What are you now missing that you believe you previously possessed and used?
  • What is your current identity? Who are you?
  • What adventure calls to you? What stops you from pursuing it?
  • What can others you trust do for you to help you recover your identify and mission?

Wrap-Up:

  • Pray for each other to encourage recovery of identify in Christ
  • Pray for each other for forgiveness and healing of secret shames and guilt.
  • Prayerfully remind each other that all need saving and as we are able to give Jesus our guilt and shame, He is faithful to give us joy and life, healing and wholeness.

Outreach/Mission:

  • We are not all called to be involved in every area of outreach. Some may seek to help the homeless, some others seek to help the unborn. What jazzes you? Think of a person whom you really hope will recover what has been stolen from them. What could you say to, or do for, that person this week?
  • Do you want more information, or training, in the area of sharing good news? Who can you ask to teach you, or partner with you? Plan to speak with that person.
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More New Years Predictions

2011 Predictions
My father, Tom Umstattd, sent me the following predictions few weeks ago. They have his typical hyper precision. I have no idea how I will score these next year.

Stock Market Prediction

The US stock market will continue to be volatile in 2011.  The DOW trading as high as 13,641 on June 6, 2011 and as low as 9,098 on Oct. 7, 2011.

On December 31, 2011 it will close at $10,372.14.  The graph will look like a big “M” with the second hump sickly smaller.

Oil Prices Prediction

The price of oil will increase to $110.25 per barrel on December 31, 2011, thank you OPEC.

Real Estate Predictions

Residential real estate values will continue to decline, even in central Texas.  Nationally they will decline 20.7%, in central Texas by 7.4%.  Too much supply at the end of the demand.

Commercial occupancy rates in central Texas will be at 71.32% on December 31, 2011.  Hey, I like my “home office.”

Foreclosure Predictions

1 out of every 3.1416 (or 31.83%) homes sold in 2011 in America will be a foreclosure sale.  So….

A new branch of the federal government will start up to assist in auctioning off foreclosures, akin to the RTC of the late 80s.  And there will be some of the worst junk food served at these auctions, so, BYOF (bring your own food).

Real Estate will continue to worsen.  42.2% of Americans with home mortgages will be upside down (market value of their homes exceed their mortgage balance) in 2011, it will be amazing how patient creditors will be trying not to flood the market with too much inventory at once.

Ironically, the number of Americans without any home mortgage, will rise.  In other words, Americans with cash will buy their homes out right.  Banks will be little or no help.

Crisis Predictions

In America, there will be no major oil spills, no category 5 hurricanes that hit America, no 7 point earthquakes, California mud slides will cease, and no major tsunamis world-wide.  Some minor flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys in late spring, and the usual forest fires out west in late summer, but not too serious.

Mostly only crises caused by Americans’ greed, fear and plain old stupidity, only to be greatly exacerbated by government intervention.  Obama’s approval rating will be as low as 31% due to his inability to understand our desire for capitalism, personal responsibility and freedom.  Americans will be both fed up with Obama and feel powerless to change the course of his socialism.  This frustration will explode in 2012 at the polls.

Political Predictions

House republicans will try rein in run-away government spending and to de-fund Obama-Care.  They will get mixed results, but the wound received from the bite of socialized medicine will not be able to be healed in 2011.  Sorry, this prognostication is not very measurable.  Who writes this stuff anyway:  “the bite of socialized medicine…”

And one for 2012:  Democrats will lose control of both houses, as well as the presidency.  But to whom…?  The Tea Party?

What do you think?