2011 Predictions
My father, Tom Umstattd, sent me the following predictions few weeks ago. They have his typical hyper precision. I have no idea how I will score these next year.

Stock Market Prediction

The US stock market will continue to be volatile in 2011.  The DOW trading as high as 13,641 on June 6, 2011 and as low as 9,098 on Oct. 7, 2011.

On December 31, 2011 it will close at $10,372.14.  The graph will look like a big “M” with the second hump sickly smaller.

Oil Prices Prediction

The price of oil will increase to $110.25 per barrel on December 31, 2011, thank you OPEC.

Real Estate Predictions

Residential real estate values will continue to decline, even in central Texas.  Nationally they will decline 20.7%, in central Texas by 7.4%.  Too much supply at the end of the demand.

Commercial occupancy rates in central Texas will be at 71.32% on December 31, 2011.  Hey, I like my “home office.”

Foreclosure Predictions

1 out of every 3.1416 (or 31.83%) homes sold in 2011 in America will be a foreclosure sale.  So….

A new branch of the federal government will start up to assist in auctioning off foreclosures, akin to the RTC of the late 80s.  And there will be some of the worst junk food served at these auctions, so, BYOF (bring your own food).

Real Estate will continue to worsen.  42.2% of Americans with home mortgages will be upside down (market value of their homes exceed their mortgage balance) in 2011, it will be amazing how patient creditors will be trying not to flood the market with too much inventory at once.

Ironically, the number of Americans without any home mortgage, will rise.  In other words, Americans with cash will buy their homes out right.  Banks will be little or no help.

Crisis Predictions

In America, there will be no major oil spills, no category 5 hurricanes that hit America, no 7 point earthquakes, California mud slides will cease, and no major tsunamis world-wide.  Some minor flooding in the Mississippi and Ohio river valleys in late spring, and the usual forest fires out west in late summer, but not too serious.

Mostly only crises caused by Americans’ greed, fear and plain old stupidity, only to be greatly exacerbated by government intervention.  Obama’s approval rating will be as low as 31% due to his inability to understand our desire for capitalism, personal responsibility and freedom.  Americans will be both fed up with Obama and feel powerless to change the course of his socialism.  This frustration will explode in 2012 at the polls.

Political Predictions

House republicans will try rein in run-away government spending and to de-fund Obama-Care.  They will get mixed results, but the wound received from the bite of socialized medicine will not be able to be healed in 2011.  Sorry, this prognostication is not very measurable.  Who writes this stuff anyway:  “the bite of socialized medicine…”

And one for 2012:  Democrats will lose control of both houses, as well as the presidency.  But to whom…?  The Tea Party?

What do you think?