If there is one thing we learn from History it is that there is nothing new under the sun.
Lets break with tradition shall we? Lets look back through history and see what we can learn about what is about to happen in the future.
As King Solomon said,
“History merely repeats itself. It has all been done before. Nothing under the sun is truly new. Sometimes people say, “Here is something new!” But actually it is old; nothing is ever truly new. We don’t remember what happened in the past, and in future generations, no one will remember what we are doing now.”
The Whig Party
America has always been a two party country. The system favors two parties so this may persist. However, the two parties we started with are not the two parties we have now. Back in the day the two major parties where the Federalist Party (Whig Party) and the Anti Federalist Party.
The Whig Party failed when it started compromising on fundamental issues. Those issues revolved around slavery specifically Kansas-Nebraska Act and the Missouri Compromise. The Whigs were over confident about their power and alienated their base.
Compromise led to division. Division led to greater compromise.
The Whigs were an anti slavery party or at least they talked like they were. But thier records failed to match their rhetoric. Northern Whigs got more and more disenchanted until finally they broke off and started their own party. They called themselves Republicans.
Within 15 years of supporting the Kansas-Nabraska Act, the Whigs were nothing but a memory. The Republicans completely replaced them. That moment for the Republicans may have been when they passed the Prescription Drug Benefit Program in 2006. History will tell us if that was the beginning of the end for the GOP.
Conclusion: The Republicans started as a Pro-Abolition coalition of Whigs.
Popular & Inexperienced Candidates
One former Whig gained favor with the people despite coming from an empty state on the frontier. He lacked experience and had generally failed at politics. But he had one thing for him: he was uncompromising Pro-Abolition. The people flocked to him and voted him into office.
His name was Abraham Lincoln and though a lifelong Whig he was elected as the first Republican president.
The transition from Whig to Republican was not overnight. It took between 10 and 15 years. All that is needed for history to repeat itself is for a handful of popular elected officials to switch from the old party to the new party.
The Tea Party is not going anywhere.
In just two years Ron Paul’s 4% has turned into Debora Medina‘s 24%. Win or loose in March the Tea Party is not through. If Scott Brown showed us anything, it is that you can’t take anything for granted.
Most of the passionate political activists right now are Tea Baggers. Other movements have passion but not like the Tea Party. Passion tends to spread and if it does it is only a matter of time before something will have to budge.
We will either see a change in GOP leadership or some new party.
Abortion is the kicker
The Republican Party was founded on one issue: Ending slavery. It slowly developed a more complete platform.
The Tea Party has one primary issue right now: less government.
We may see this shift. If pro-lifers like Debora Medina, Sarah Palin and Ron Paul keep leading we may see a big shift towards a more complete life affirming platform.
If the Republican Party keeps putting forth pro-choice candidates like Kay Baily Hutchinson and dead weights like John McCain then the shift may be faster than anyone expects.
The correct GOP response:
If the Republican Party wants to avoid the path of the Whig Party then it must do the following things:
- Share information and funding with TP activists. Keep them in the tent.
- Stop protecting compromised incumbents
- Be patient with folks new to the process
- Support term limits
Predicted GOP Response
- Withhold info and funding from TP activists. Exclude them from the tent.
- Protect compromised incumbents.
- Be mean to folks new to the system (treat them like they treated the Ron Paul People)
- Resist term limits
The democratic party has proved itself to be good at absorbing new movements. We will see if the republicans are able to do the same.
What do you think?
- Am I off my rocker?
- Do you think Tea Party candidates like Deborah Medina have a chance in the cycle?
- What do you think about the Tea Party?
- Is the tea party bad for America?