Predicting the future is based on three things: cycles, trends and anomalies. I have no crystal ball to anticipate anomalies. But I do watch cycles and trends. Here are 11 things I see happening in 2011.
Prediction 1: New iPad With Camera
I predict that apple will come out with a new iPad in the first half of 2011. It will have a front facing camera. But even then video calls won’t catch on. Why? Because half the population is women and women feel uncomfortable being on camera without being dressed up. Also people don’t want others to know when they are not paying attention.
Prediction 2: Real Estate Market to Crash in Austin
Historically Austin tends to trail the rest of the country by about three years when it comes to downturns. Austin real estate has been overpriced for years and is ready for a big drop. With a solid republican majority in the Texas Legislature look for some significant budget cuts which may mean government layoffs.
I predict a 15% drop by the end of 2011.
Prediction 3: Voter ID Bill Will Pass This Year
Republicans in Texas have been trying to pass this bill for a decade and have been thwarted every session. Now they have enough votes to push it through.
Prediction 4: iPhone will come out on Verizon.
I think Steve Jobs has heard the customer outcry against AT&T. The AT&T iPhone will also come out and support 4G. For bonus points I predict that the next iPhone will have a chip that lets it go on any network.
Prediction 5: Sarah Palin will announce a bid for presidency.
Palin is surrounded by too many worshipers to not run. For bonus points I predict that she will continue to get tons of media publicity but will fail to win the primary in 2012 because the main body of republicans won’t think she can win the general election.
Prediction 6: Global Famine
Global Weather patters are changing and they have already led to crop failures in Russia, Florida and Australia. Food prices have already started to soar. In China there food riots are breaking out in the streets. I see this trend continuing into 2011.
Famine may be a bit too strong of a word. Thankfully we have a free market and global distribution so I predict the impact to be a global rise of about 10% in food prices which will hurt the poor. Start saving to help feed our brothers in poor nations.
Prediction 7: UT Make it to a Bowl Game
I think UT’s bad season was an anomaly. With a new coaching staff and an older, heaver offensive line I think Gilbert will lead the horns to victory this year. For bonus points I think the horns will either loose a BCS bowl or win a non BCS bowl.
Prediction 8: US Inflation to Rise to 5% or above
The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing has flooded the world with dollars. Not only that but crop failures around the world are leading to higher food prices. This double pressure will lead to inflation.
Prediction 9: An Umstattd Book will be published.
There are three Umstattd books in the works this year and I predict that between the three of them one will get published.
Prediction 10: Unemployment to Remain High
I feel that our jobless recovery has been do the catastrophic rise in the minimum wage. The minimum wage jumped by 30% between 2007 and 2009. Do those dates look familiar? Those are the same dates as the recession. The likely cure for this minimum wage is inflation which won’t be enough to fix it this year. Right now unemployment is around 9.2%.
At the lowest I predict the rate will fall to 8.5% but I would not be surprised to see double digit unemployment by the end of 2011.
Prediction 11: 5,000 Saved Through 40 Days for Life
So far 3,599 babies have been saved through the efforts of folks just like you praying in front of abortion clinics. 40 Days for Life is growing and improving its sidewalk counseling approach. For bonus points I predict that the number of workers who have quit will pass 50 and the number of facilities closed will pass 12.