Predicting the future is not rocket surgery. It just involves watching cycles & trends. The problem is there is no way to account for anomalies which makes failure easy to excuse. Here are 12 things I see happening in 2012.
- 2011 Predictions (Score 7.5 out of 11)
- 2010 Predictions (Score 7.5 out of 10)
- 2009 Predictions (Score 4 out of 9)
1 Romney to win Republican Nomination after Brokered Convention
2 Popular Third Party (Tea Party?) Candidate to Run for US President
If Romney wins the primary he is going to draw a Tea Party opponent in addition to Obama. Look for the third party candidate to come in from the right not the left.
3 Obama to Win Reelection
American’s are going to remember why the love Obama and why they dislike republican corruption. I just can’t see them electing Romney.
4 Republicans Regain control of Congress
The GOP will regain control of congress although by a slimmer margin than they currently enjoy.
5 UT to win BCS Bowl Game
UT is going to transform from a defensive powerhouse to an offensive powerhouse. They are going to teach Davis how to catch the ball and teach Shipley how to get open. The will also have a non freshman Quarterback who knows how to move the ball down the field.
6 Aggies to Get Spanked in SEC
I predict A&M will win no more than 3 SEC games all year. I will not be surprised if they loose every conference game they play.
7 Attacks + Outages + Regulation will create worst year for the Internet in the history of the internet.
The internet will be attacked on all sides in 2012. Congress will regulate it. Hackers will break it in specific areas for specific periods of time. A huge virus attack will break out making headlines and costing businesses billions.
If you want to save the internet of tomorrow fight SOPA today. Piracy is a problem but SOPA is not the answer.
8 2011 Will Be the Year of Facebook Advertising
I predict that expenditures on FB ads will double from 2011. Authors, politicians and small businesses will get in on the game like never before. The first movers are already making a killing. Umstattd Media does Facebook advertising if you would like to give them a try for your company.
9 Facebook IPO
Facebook will issue a public offering and I will probably buy in on it.
10 Debut of an Apple TV
Apple will finally announce a real TV that will be amazing and expensive. It will also be so easy to use my 80 year old grandmother will want one.
11 US Economy to End Up in 2012
The chaos in Europe and the typical election year Fed shenanigans will cause the stock market to end higher than it did in 2011. I see this helping facilitate Obama’s reelection. If I miss this one I will like miss the one about Obama getting reelected.
Also I predict that while the economy will only make modest gains the press will go crazy and make the improvements look much better than they really are. This will spur additional growth that will struggle to sustain itself after the election.
12 Netflix to finish the year above $100 per share
Right now Netflix is trading around $70 a share. Despite their recent goofs the fundamentals of the company are strong. Plus, they are still way cheaper than cable. Subscribers who quit in protest will come back. This year they will be investing in South America and Europe and by the end of 2012 investors will see that Netflix has a bright future ahead of it. This is all assuming they can survive all the take over attempts between now and then. I’ve put my money where my mouth is on this one. I’ve sold my Apple stock for Netflix stock
I have 2012 publishing industry predictions that you can find at the Author Media Blog we also interviewed nearly a dozen industry experts and got their predictions as well.
The world will not end. Jesus will not come back.
The more I study history the more I feel like we live in a fairly boring time all things considered. Our fear does not match with reality. The wars are not very big, the famines not that deadly, the epidemics not as widespread compared with how they have been in the past. Even our recession is nothing compared with recessions of the past. If we were closer to the end of the world I would expect the world to go out with more of a bang.
Also we need to give Israel its sovereignty. Are they really a sovereign nation when they have to get permission from Bush or Obama to defend themselves? Ron Paul is the only candidate who wants to give 100% sovereignty to Israel and to stop giving money to her enemies.
Tom Umsatttd’s (My Dad) Predictions
For my more measurable 2012 predictions.
1. Presidency. The republican (GOP) presidential candidate will remain be dubious, until around June, maybe an un-suspension of “9-9-9?” Here are the scenarios as I see them.
Presidential Electoral Votes by Party for 2012
Scenario Democrats Republicans Other
Any GOP candidate besides Romney 235 300 0
If Dr. Paul is the GOP candidate* 135 400* 0
If Romney is the GOP candidate** 235** 125 175
* If Dr. Paul wins the GOP candidacy, the GOP will reform more towards actually following the US Constitution. There will also be an increase of impeachment of federal judges in 2013, maybe even a supreme court justice!
** If Mitt Romney becomes the GOP candidate, President Obama will win re-election with 235 votes, and, the GOP will cease to be a viable political party by 2014, obliging massive GOP defections to the more conservative party during the next 3 years. No matter what happens, I see a bright future for America, especially after 2014, with a more conservative political party of some type to more effectively rival the liberals and socialists.
2. Democrats will continue a minority in the House, and barely lose control of the US Senate in 2012, no matter who becomes president.
3. Football. University of Texas (whose record was 8-5 in 2010, and 5-7 in 2009) will win at least 9 games in the 2012 football season. Bonus prediction: A&M will win less than 5 games against SEC teams, probably closer to 2.
4. RG III Robert Griffin, III, Baylor’s Heisman Trophy winning quarter back, will go pro L.
5. Baylor will continue to dominate in sports with its 19 teams, being 1 of the top 2 most successful universities in athletics in the Big 12. (I hope this is a measurable fact.)
6. Gold will be near or below $1000 per ounce by the end of 2012.
7. Energy. Crude oil will be volatile, but will end up around $105 per barrel. Gasoline will too, but with not so much volatility, ending the year around $3.20 per gallon.
8. War. Occasional short-lived riots, and changes of regimes will continue in the middle east. But with the US leaving Iraq, there will be a general cooling of hostilities.
9. Europe will be a worldwide disappointment. The euro will be weak, another European country, maybe 2, will have massive financial troubles, as they continue their liberal, Keynesian agendas toward economic decline.
10. Real Estate foreclosures. Even though the Obama administration will make every attempt to make itself look good, foreclosures and distressed sales of residential real estate (as well as the recession) will continue. He will actually have some success in the summer, mainly from his friends in finance holding back from foreclosures until after the elections. This graph will look like a “V” with a larger right side. The National Association of Realtor’s report will state that foreclosures and short sales (typically sold at deep discounts) will be high at the beginning of 2012 (perhaps peaking around 33%, lower in the summer and fall (perhaps in the low 20s), but then after reporting concludes, before the elections, they will rise to 30-40% of all sales.
11. Crisis Predictions. Fukushima will continue to be a mostly ignored, major problem. There will be no earth quakes over 9, but over 300 earth quakes under 7 all over the Pacific rim. There will be 3 category 4 hurricanes, and 1 cat 5, but the later will decrease to a 3 when it hits the continent. We will have the usual flooding in the Mississippi/Missouri/Ohio valleys, fires in the west and southwest, and a rather & snowy cold winter in the NE and Midwest. The summer will be another hot one for Texas with 30 days over 100 degrees, and less than average rainfall from March to October.
12. Netflix closed the year at $69.29 per share, will be valued over $150 per share by the end of 2012. Too convenient, too inexpensive compared to going to the movies. The recent bad news is not significant to hold the price down.